By Dan Yergin -国华 树春译注

　　One key question for the next century is how we provide energy in an environmentally sound<注1> way. As living standards rise in the developing world,<注2> energy consumption will 　　increase. As a result, many countries are now opening the door for private investment<注3> in a sector<注4> that used once to be solely the preserve<注5> of government.<注6>

　　In the developed world too, the move<注7> is towards the deregulation<注8> and privatisation of electricity generation<注9> and distribution. There is also a trend towards locally-generated energy,<注10> particularly in the developing world. Factories and shopping centres may one day have their own power<注11> sources.

　　Progress is also being made in minimising the environmental impact<注12> of energy production and consumption. A motor car<注13> today puts out<注14> perhaps 5 per cent of the pollution a new car did in 1970. We can produce clean power<注15> too—but it costs,<注16> so in the new millennium we're to some extent going to have the environment we can afford.<注17>

　　The spectre<注18> of scarce or impossibly<注19> expensive energy is no longer with us,<注20> thanks to a combination of<注21> opening up<注22> new regions of the world and new technologies. Shortage<注23> is very unlikely. Environmental considerations mean there is a seriousness too about<注24> alternative energy sources<注25> that wasn't there<注26> ten years ago.

　　Right now the fuel cell<注27> is at the top of the list of alternative<注28> technologies.

　　Advances in turbine transportation<注29> mean that natural gas is going to have an ever-increasing<注30> role. Nuclear power<注31> may prove competitive enough to have a much longer life<注32> than many expect, but until there's a major change in public sentiment,<注33> I don't expect to see much new nuclear construction.<注34>

　　Will the grip of oil on<注35> personal transportation<注36> continue? Sports utility vehicles<注37> like Land Rovers<注38> and jeeps are hardly the perfect<注39> means of urban transport.<注40> But people have become very attached to<注41> their automobiles. So until we get around to<注42> technologyswhereswe beam ourselves around,<注43> I suspect we'll continue to have them.<注44> Some may be electric;<注45> others could run on cleaner oil-based fuel or natural gas.

　　One area which is certainly not clear is the impact of the internet on transport. On the one hand, you<注46> will be able to accomplish by sitting in front of a screen<注47> what you used to have to go to the airport for,<注48> on the other, increased knowledge may well fuel<注49> a rising demand for travel. We are only at the beginning of a revolution that is already being called a bigger revolution than the internal combustion engine.<注50>

　　Clearly, everything will become more global.<注51> National borders no longer offer protection for national companies and Europe's single market means increasing competition across the continent-not least<注52> between energy companies.

　　Socially, too, we're seeing the advent<注53> of what is already being dubbed "globality"<注54>—the 24-hour,<注55> hyperactive,<注56> interconnected, e-mail-fuelled,<注57> sleep-deprived<注58> world of the new millennium.

　　The energy business<注59> operates on such long time-horizons<注60> that the impact of decisions made today may not be felt for twenty years. And the one sure thing we do know is that in even twenty years time the world will be a very different place.(From CAM: Cambridge Alumni Magazine, No. 28, 1999)