The most heroic phase of social and economic development, during which the vast mass of a population lifts itself out of poverty, is - and has always been - about peasant farmers.

　　Paradoxically, as the effectiveness of development processes increases, with the time required to shift from rural misery to economic modernity compressing from centuries to mere decades, the "farmer problem" appears to become more acute. This is particularly evident in China, where the most spectacular development success in human history exists simultaneously with a problem of rural poverty that seems at least daunting, and to some even overwhelming.

　　Appearances, however, can be deceptive. At least three powerfully interacting forces are working to realize a far more supportive environment for rural development than any previous generation has known.

　　The problem itself is easy to outline. Since farmers are primarily food producers, the total income available to them is limited by the overall social food budget. As societies become more affluent the proportion of total spending dedicated to food declines. The result is relative deprivation among food producers, hence rural poverty.

　　Two forces have traditionally counteracted this depressing tendency.

　　Firstly, urbanization - which has historically been almost indistinguishable from social development - has worked to reduce the proportion of the population tied to the land. Combined with improvements in agricultural productivity, this trend has substantially contributed to rebalancing income levels between urban and rural groups.

　　Secondly, free trade has encouraged diversification and rationalization of agricultural production, encouraging production of raw materials for textile production or an advancesintosspecialized horticulture, which replaces cheap staples with relatively high-value fruits, flowers and exotic vegetables. When free trade expands to a global level it allows countries with large rural populations to reap benefits through mutual economic specialization with more highly urbanized societies. However, inexcusable levels of agricultural protectionism among developed nations have seriously impeded the realization of these potentialities.

　　Most exciting, however, is the third - new and truly revolutionary - factor, which is modern biotechnology.

　　Where urbanization and free trade have historically helped to compensate for the tendency to relative rural impoverishment, biotechnology promises to cancel this tendency entirely, moving agriculture back to a position at the forefront of economic development.

　　Biotechnological manipulation of crops through direct genetic engineering - rather than by the painfully slow process of selective breeding - will not only radically accelerate improvements in agricultural productivity, it will also completely transform existing ideas concerning the scope of "farming."

　　It is not only food and fibres that can now be farmed, increasingly fuels, plastics, medical drugs and even bioinformatic materials (such as various "intelligent molecules") will all be enveloped by the agricultural sector.

　　The age-old rural development dilemma, whereby increases in agricultural productivity have tended to result in food-glut and collapsing prices, thus canceling the gains to farming income, will be tremendously relieved by these new horizons.

　　In the epoch of biotechnology, leaving the land will no longer be the only way for rural populations to ensure an improvement in their living standards.