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Soros bullish on declining USD
http://www.sina.com.cn 2003/05/27 11:17  Shanghai Daily

  George Soros says the US dollar will decline, a bet that in the past would send currency traders hurrying to get in line behind the man who runs the world's biggest hedge fund group.

  Not this time. Soros, who made US billion by betting against the British pound in 1992, said in an interview with CNBC he is betting the dollar will fall against the euro and the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

  The dollar was little changed in late New York trading from when Soros, 72, spoke last week. Over the last year, the dollar has fallen 21 percent against the European currency and 17 percent against a basket of six major currencies. The declines may explain the lack of reaction to the comments.

  "It's already sold off," Durraj Tase, head of foreign exchange trading at Citigroup Private Banking.

  "The theme he's talking about is in line with what people are thinking." Soros said the dollar will weaken because US currency policy is ill-advised. A week ago, US Treasury Secretary John Snow said the dollar's decline was "fairly modest," suggesting he's comfortable with the currency extending its slide.

  Snow said that a strong dollar is one that inspires confidence and is difficult to counterfeit, without making reference to its value against other currencies.

  Soros said the comments were "wrong" and "irresponsible" because a weaker dollar will curb European growth without boosting US growth.

  Snow "announced a change in American attitudes, and I think it's a mistaken one," Soros said. "It's a beggar-thy-neighbor policy" because a weaker dollar against the euro will curb European growth.

  Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols declined to comment on Soros' remarks.

  "The president believes that our policies are the right policies, and they should be unchanged," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said in response to a question about the currency at the regular White House reporters' briefing.

  "Soros at this point is stating what most of the people in the market believe to be true," said Andrew Weiss, a currency strategist at AIG Trading Group, a unit of American InternationalsgroupsInc. "It is a good time to short the dollar and the US is not counteracting that view."

  Soros gained renown when he made a US billion bet against the British pound that led to the devaluation of sterling and the resignation of then UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont.

  Soros's former chief strategist, Stanley Druckenmiller, was the architect of that trade. He left the firm in 2000.

  Soros also made money on the deutsche mark's rise in the aftermath of the collapse of the Berlin wall and on the fall of Japanese stocks after their peak in 1989.Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad blamed Soros for the collapse in Southeast Asian currencies in 1997 and 1998 and called him a "moron." At the time, Soros denied selling the ringgit.

  He has since been distancing himself from day-to-day management of Soros Fund Management to focus on philanthropic activities such as promoting civil society in Turkmenistan and better public education in the US.

  During the 1990s, Soros's Quantum fund was generating 30 percent average annual returns. Since the end of 2000, the fund, which changed its name to the Quantum Endowment Fund to reflect a more conservative investment approach, has climbed 8.6 percent in all, or less than 4 percent a year.




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