TEHERAN - During the US-led war in Iraq, some in "axis of evil" member Iran joked: "When the Americans beat Saddam, Iran goes through to the final."

　　Analysts say that joke has turned to fear among some members of Iran's clerical establishment in recent days as Washington piles mounting pressure on the Islamic Republic over its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons and sheltering of al Qaeda members.

　　"For the first time they're starting to think: 'Maybe the Americans really are going to come after us'," said one local political analyst, who declined to be named.

　　Such a possibility seemed far-fetched earlier this month when reports emerged that Iranian and US officials had held several meetings in Geneva to discuss issues of mutual interest regarding Afghanistan and Iraq.

　　But US intelligence reports that some senior al Qaeda members in Iran may have played a role in the May 12 suicide bombings in Saudi Arabia quickly froze the tentative detente.

　　US President George W. Bush identified Iran as part of an "axis of evil" along with Iraq and North Korea in 2002. Since then, US-led forces have toppled Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the White House has been engaged in tense diplomatic manoeuvering with North Korea over its weapons programmes.

　　US policymakers are due to gather at the White House on Tuesday to discuss Iran with the Pentagon reportedly pushing for a tougher stance including actions that could lead to toppling Iran's clerical leadership through popular uprisings.

　　The heat on Iran is likely to be turned up even further on June 16 if, as Washington hopes, the International Atomic Energy Agency signals grave doubts that Iran's ambitious network of nuclear facilities are merely designed for power generation.

　　EU tune

　　A highly critical IAEA report could even callsintosquestion the European Union's policy of critical engagement with Iran.

　　"If the IAEA report is bad then it's going to be increasingly hard for us to keep telling the Americans that talking to Iran is working. The achievements have been pretty thin to be honest," said one European diplomat in Teheran.

　　But it is the al Qaeda accusations that have caused the greatest alarm in Iran.

　　Officials have been at pains to stress that Shi'ite Iran is a sworn enemy of Sunni-led al Qaeda; that Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan are lengthy and difficult to police; and that it has caught and deported about 500 al Qaeda suspects in the past year.

　　"They're aware how dear the issue of al Qaeda is to Americans' hearts," said an Asian diplomat in Teheran.

　　Iran has said it has arrested additional al Qaeda suspects recently who are under interrogation. Leading US lawmakers predicted on Sunday that there would shortly be positive developments regarding al Qaeda in Iran.

　　Many analysts say Iran may also give in to international demands regarding its nuclear programme by agreeing to tighter inspections by the IAEA.

　　"The problem for them is that they don't know if they react positively whether it will just bring more pressure to cooperate. They want to know what the incentive is for cooperating," the political analyst in Teheran said.

　　No compromise

　　But, analysts say, the hardliners who control Iran's real levers of power are more likely to cede ground on the international front than on domestic issues which would undermine their grip on power.

　　Flagging in popularity among a youthful population frustrated by the slow pace of change, reformists in Iran have tried to argue that external pressures make reform imperative.

　　"If a cup of poison is to be drunk, it has to be done before the very existence of our system and, more importantly, our independence and territorial integrity are jeopardized," 127 reformist MPs said in a strongly-worded letter calling on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to break the political deadlock that has obstructed reforms.

　　But hardliners remain steadfast, arguing that only by being strong and uncompromising can Iran withstand the US threats.

　　"The Iranian people should be vigilant and identify America's elements in the country insgroupsto foil their plot to create tension and crises," hardline Kayhan newspaper on Sunday quoted Revolutionary Guards chief Yahya Rahim Safavi as saying.