Within weeks of the latest Middle East "Road Map" being launched, the signs are already ominous. Amid continuing violence, surveys of popular opinion both inside and outside the region show widespread despair about the prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace. The conflict seems in danger of being consigned to the global dustbin of intractable problems.

　　The immediate obstacle to forward movement is a classic chicken-and-egg dilemma - Israel insists that terrorist attacks must cease before political progress is possible, while the Palestinian Authority refuses to take firm action against "militants" until some signs of such progress are already visible.

　　Since this stand-off is logically insoluble, despair is indeed understandable. It is perhaps necessary to take a step back from the deadlock to gain a slightly less paralyzing perspective.

　　Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has already broken new ground in the "Road Map" process by describing the Israeli presence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip as an "occupation". It is important to remember, however, that this is not an occupation of land belonging to a previously existing Palestinian political entity.

　　The West Bank - then known as "Transjordan" - was occupied by Israel after its successes against the massed armies of Egypt, Jordan, Syria and other Arab forces during the 1967 war (the third of four struggles for survival fought by the young state). The Gaza Strip was taken from Egypt during the same conflict, along with the entirety of the Sinai peninsula, while the strategically important Golan Heights were taken from Syria.

　　"Palestine" gradually emerged as a "virtual entity" under these conditions of occupation - without evershavingsenjoyed political independence or effective sovereignty. The consequence has been distressing. Whereas the Sinai was returned to Egypt in 1979 in an orderly and basically peaceful fashion, the absence of an organized "recipient state" for the "Palestinian Territories" means violent anarchy looms whenever the prospect of Israeli control recedes.

　　Many on the political right - and not only in Israel - wistfully imagine a situation in which the West Bank, with the Gaza Strip added, is returned to Jordanian control. It is almost certainly too late for this to be anything other than a dream, even if the Jordanians could be arm-twisted into accepting such a poisoned chalice.

　　Nevertheless, it is important to hold onto the decisive fact - the simultaneous combination of an unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict with the emergence of an autonomous Palestinian State dooms current models of Israeli-Palestinian peace-making to frustration (at best). Somehow these two issues must be separated, if Israeli occupation is to be replaced by something other than blood-soaked chaos.

　　The birth of a state is always complex and disorderly. To think a functional and lawful Palestinian state could emerge directly out of Israeli military occupation seems optimistic to the point of irresponsibility.

　　Some transitional arrangement involving a non-Israeli authority is clearly required, combining the greatest possible legitimacy among the Palestinian population with the competence, sincerity and will to effectively suppress terrorist activity.

　　If it's too late for Jordan to take on this role, the world needs to find someone who will.