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Asian economies see rebound
http://www.sina.com.cn 2003/07/10 11:04  Shanghai Daily

  Thailand's key stock index has jumped 17 percent in a month. South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries Co expects ship orders to rise 26 percent this year. Manufacturing in Singapore expanded in June for the first month in four.

  Asian economies are on the rebound. Exports to the US are rising as the world's biggest economy recovers, and Asian consumers are taking advantage of falling borrowing costs to buy more cars and homes. Firms, spurred by the end of the Iraq war and the decline of the SARS epidemic, are investing in machinery and equipment.

  "We see that there's an improve-ment coming," said Tonnie Vonk, vice president of Asia-Pacific operations for NEC Computers Inc.

  Asian economies outside of Japan will grow by an average of 4.5 per-cent in the second half, accelerating from 3 percent growth in the first half, said P K Basu, managing director at Robust Economic Analysis Ltd in Singapore.

  "There is a growing consensus that growth in East Asia should pick up in the second half of this year," Asian Development Bank President Tadao Chino said last week.

  The Manila-based bank expects East Asian economic growth to slow to 5.5 percent this year from 6.6 percent last year. Next year, growth will pick up to 6.3 percent.

  China, which grew the most in seven years in the first quarter, is likely to slow in the second half because of job losses and investment delays caused by SARS. In addition, the government has been limiting bank lending to prevent the property market from overheating.

  Asia's second-largest economy will grow 7.5 percent in the third quarter and 7.8 percent in the fourth, according to the State Information Center, a government think-tank. That compares with 9.9 percent growth in the first quarter and the government's estimate of 8.3 percent in the second.

  In the US, which buys a fifth of Asia's exports, growth will accelerate to an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter, more than double the 1.4 percent pace of the year's first three months, according to the median forecast of 60 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

  Falling borrowing costs are encouraging consumers to spend more. In April, India cut its key rate a quarter point to a 30-year low of 6 percent. In Indonesia, the yield on the key one-month bill fell to a record 9.53 percent in June.

  "The second half of this year is very promising for Asia," said Adrian Mowat of J P Morgan Chase & Co.

  Investors agree. Eight of the world's 10 best-performing stock market indexes in the past month are in Asia. India's key stock index has risen 11 percent, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is up 12 percent.




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