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新浪首页 > 新浪教育 > 伦敦一位数学家宣称可预知美满婚姻

Probability of newlyweds staying together can be accuracied
http://www.sina.com.cn 2003/08/21 09:54  北京青年报

  LONDON(Reuters) - A mathematician says he can predict with 94% accuracy the probability of a given pair of newlyweds staying together. Professor James Murray of the University of Washington says the two formulae he devised were based on a 10-year study of 700 American couples.

  A psychologist observed each couple during a 15-minute conversation shortly after their marriage, Murray said. A couple's ability to communicate on subjects such as sex, child rearing or money was measured using a scale that gave positive points for good signals, such as smiles and affectionate gestures, and negative points for bad signals, such as rolling of the eyes, mocking and coldness. "We used an accepted psychological scoring system to award them points, such as minus three for scorn and plus two for humor," Murray told the DailyTelegraph of London.

  The points were then converted into algebraic terms enabling the study's authors to make divorce projections. With the data two equations were then computed -- one for the husband and one for the wife. The couples were checked every two years and the model predicted which marriages failed with almost complete accuracy.

伦敦一位数学家宣称可预知美满婚姻

  伦敦:一位数学家说,他可以94%的准确率来预测某对新婚夫妇是否会享有长久的婚姻。西雅图华盛顿大学数学教授默里说他发明的两个公式基于一项为期10年对700对美国夫妇进行的研究。

  心理学家要对新婚夫妇之间的15分钟谈话加以观察,默里说道,夫妇间对诸如性、抚养子女和钱等问题相互交流的能力会通过一种尺度来衡量,对那些好的表示,如微笑、亲昵的姿态,就可以加分;对那些不好的表示,如不耐烦地转眼睛、嘲笑、冷漠,则减分。"我们使用广为接受的一种心理学测量体系来评分,比如轻蔑的态度减3分,幽默加2分。"默里对伦敦的《每日电讯报》说道。

  这些分值接着被转换为代数语言,从而使该项研究的创始者们进行离婚预测。这些数据被放到两个方程式中进行计算———一个是丈夫的,一个是妻子的。对这些夫妇每两年调查一次,而预测哪对夫妇的婚姻会失败的模型几乎是完全准确。




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