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Scholars back stable currency
http://www.sina.com.cn 2003/09/24 14:47  Shanghai Daily

  Scholars and economists voiced their support for China's foreign currency policy and expressed optimism about China's continued economic development during panel discussions at the 2003 Forbes Global CEO Conference, which kicked off yesterday in the city.

  "I think this is the wrong time for the Chinese currency to appreciate in value. In times of global economic instability, a policy that pegs the yuan with the US dollar should not be dropped," said David Eldon, chairman of HSBC Asia Pacific.

  China has been under strong pressure from Japan and the United States of late to adjust the value of the renminbi.

  Joseph stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University, agreed with Eldon.

  "It is the wrong time for the US government to push China to revalue its currency," Stiglitz said.

  He said that if China were to adopt a floating currency rate at this time, the country will end up mired in deflation, a problem China faced in the late 1990s.

  "It would also be detrimental to the global economy," he added.

  Stiglitz also said he doesn't think China's economy is overheated at this point.

  "China does not have an excessive labor market or high inflation," Stiglitz said. "What China needs to do is to create jobs and enhance productivity."

  Stiglitz predicted China would continue to witness the rapid economic growth at the pace it has achieved during the past few years.

  Although china's overall economy remains healthy, some panelists warned that the country's real estate sector is too hot.

  "The recent decision by the central bank to raise the reserve requirement to 7 percent from 6 percent is a reflection that too much money has flowed into real estate projects, which needs to be constrained," said Charlene Barshefsky, a US trade representative during the Clinton administration.

  In spite of the optimism over China's overall economy, attendants said the reform of China's banking sector should top the government's agenda.

  "The risk is substantial. The high ratio of non-performing loans means the misallocation of capital," said Barshefsky, who urged the Chinese government to reform the banking sector through the recapitalization, increased liberalization and the removal of the government intervention.

  The conference also heard from several leading Chinese exe-cutives, including Zhang Ruimin, chief executive officer of Haier Group, and Hu Maoyuan, president of Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.

  Zhang of Haier Group, one of the country's largest electrical appliance manufacturers, said the company will concentrate on its core business instead of jumping into the profitable property market, as many other large domestic companies have done.

  "There are high profit margins in the real estate market, but there is also high risk. I think that we will resist that temptation," he said.




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