Shanghai's exports grew 74.5 percent year-on-year in November, but analysts predict the growth rate will decline steeply in 2004.

　　While the city's exports hit a record high of US$5 billion in November, analysts said many exporters are pushing buyers to increase purchases to beat a new tax-rebate policy that goes into place on January 1.

　　Local companies sold US$44.9 billion in overseas markets from January to November, up 54.4 percent year-on-year, the Shanghai Foreign Economic Relations and Trade Commission reported yesterday.

　　The city's export growth rate was 21.5 percentage points higher than the national average for the 11-month period, mainly due to the numerous overseas-invested companies operating in Shanghai.

　　With exports rising quickly in the second half of the year, the city has already surpassed its target of exporting US$34.5 billion worth of goods this year.

　　Analysts, however, expect a fall in export growth next year.

　　"The booming picture is mainly the result of a new rebate policy published in October that will cut export-tax rebates by an average of 3 percent starting next year," said Li Huiyong, an analyst with Shenyin & Wanguo Research and Consulting Co Ltd.

　　"Obviously, exporters are boosting sales before the year end to save export costs," he added.

　　China announced in October a modest rollback of export rebates in order to reduce swelling government spending and push exporters to develop more value-added commodities instead of depending on labor-intensive goods.

　　The average rebate will be lowered from the current 15 percent to 12 percent, effective on January 1.

　　"We have persuaded importers to land all the export orders before the end of this year," said Wang Ding, a trade manager with Shanghai Worldbest Industry Development Co Ltd, a major exporter of textiles and garments. Rebates for textiles and garments will be lowered by about 4 percentage points next year.

　　"The US cap on some Chinese textile imports and frequent anti-dumping charges will affect next year's export performance," Li said.

　　Overseas-invested companies have become Shanghai's major export engine, according to the city's trade authority.

　　During the first 11 months of this year, overseas-invested companies shipped US$28.4 billion worth of goods, up 63.3 percent from last year. They accounted for 63.3 percent of Shanghai's total exports.