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Euro Posts Longest Losing Streak
http://www.sina.com.cn 2004/03/16 15:22  Shanghai Daily

  The euro had its longest losing streak against the dollar in more than two years in the past week in New York on signs Europe's economy is lagging the United States.

  French government figures on Friday showed industrial production unexpectedly declined in January. A government report earlier in the week showed Germany's factory output slipped in January. The two countries account for about half the euro region's gross domestic product.

  The 12-nation currency dropped 1.2 percent on the week and 3 percent this year, after a 20 percent surge in 2003. Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and ABN Amro Holding NV yesterday cut their forecasts for the euro. The firms account for about 13 percent of daily currency trading, Euromoney magazine estimates.

  "We are at the beginning of the end" of the euro's advance, said John Rothfield, senior currency strategist at Bank of America Corp in San Francisco. "How the endgame finally plays out is really still yet to be determined, but we think the range is from $1.20 to $1.30" for the next couple of months.

  The euro fell to US$1.2215 in New York on Friday from $1.2366 the previous week, according to EBS prices. The currency is down for the fourth straight week versus the dollar, the first time that's happened since January 2002.

  Versus the yen, the euro weakened to 135.33 yen from 138.55 a week ago.

  "We cannot be an enthusiastic buyer of the euro," said Anthony Borthwick, senior manager of currencies and fixed income at PanAgora Asset Management in Boston, which invests US$15 billion. It's "a short-term bull market for the dollar."

  PanAgora on Friday reduced some of its bets on the dollar declining against eight currencies, including the Australian dollar and British pound, after terrorist bombings in Madrid.

  The euro extended its decline after European Central Bank council member Ernst Welteke told reporters in Oberstdorf, Germany, that policy makers "cannot be sure that we can get a decent recovery this year."

  The US current-account deficit narrowed last quarter. The shortfall in the current account, the broadest measure of international trade because it includes investments, shrank to US$127.5 billion from US$135 billion in the previous three-month period.

  The shortfall accounted for 4.5 percent of gross domestic product during the fourth quarter, while last year's deficit of US$541.8 billion made up 4.9 percent of the value of all goods and services produced.

  A survey by the University of Michigan found its preliminary index of consumer sentiment for March fell to 94.1 from 94.4. The index declined in February by the most since September 11, 2001.

  France's production dropped 0.5 percent in January, contrary to the 0.4 percent forecast gain.

  "The economy in Europe is obviously still on the weak side," said Patrizio Merciai, adviser at Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie in Geneva.

  (Bloomberg News)




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