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Rising NZ Dollar Slows GDP Rise
http://www.sina.com.cn 2004/03/30 16:34  Shanghai Daily

  New Zealand's economic growth rate slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter as fewer houses were built and a rising currency curbed timber exports, boosting expectations the central bank won't raise interest rates next month.

  Gross domestic product expanded 0.6 percent in the three months ended December 31, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington. That's less than the revised 1.6 percent pace in the third quarter and the 0.9 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. From a year ago, the economy grew 3.2 percent.

  Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard, who raised interest rates a quarter point to 5.25 percent in January, said this month growth may slow as exports, which make up 30 percent of the economy, decline. Carter Holt Harvey Ltd, New Zealand's biggest forest owner, cut its log harvest by a fifth as a 25 percent increase in the local currency against the US dollar last year reduced its earnings.

  "This pours cold water on the idea that more interest rate increases are required," said Robin Clements, chief economist at UBS New Zealand Ltd in Christchurch. "It suggests a slowdown this year."

  Nine of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News on March 12 expect Bollard will leave the benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent at his next review on April 29.

  The New Zealand dollar bought 64.52 US cents from 64.6 cents before the report.

  Production from the forestry industry fell 4.5 percent from the third quarter, the fourth consecutive decline according to the statistics agency.

  Home building slowed amid expectations that interest rates were rising and that house prices won't repeat last year's 22 percent increase, analysts said. Construction of homes and non-residential buildings fell 2 percent in the quarter, while investment in new housing dropped 3.1 percent, the agency said.

  (Bloomberg News)




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