Singaporeans have a new prime minister. Lee Hsien Loong was sworn in on August 12, replacing outgoing Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, marking the first leadership change in 14 years,

　　The power shift was well planned and long expected. With familiar faces in the new cabinet and two former leaders playing advisory roles, the new prime minister will be well supported.

　　However, amid the seemingly political harmony, the new prime minister has some important issues to take care of and, compared with the past, the future is fated with many more variable factors.

　　Political Burden

　　MY TURN: August 12, Lee Hsien Loong is sworn in as the third Singaporean prime minister

　　One of the major features of Singaporean politics is the planned power shift between top leaders. This means a prime minister may not necessarily be elected, but is put in place after the current leader abdicates his power when domestic, political and economic situation are suitable. The incumbent is put under observation for many years and, once in power, will take charge for a protracted period.

　　In Lee’s case, he may stay in power for the next 10 years, under the mentorship of his father Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong. During his expected decade in power, the greatest challenge for the 52-year-old may be born from the changing social and political climate.

　　The capacity to bear political impact of the city-state is rather weak. One major reason for the country’s economic success lies in the political stability of an authoritarian state, based on the support of intellectuals and the “elite class.” At an early stage, the system proved effective to safeguard social stability and to guarantee state development. However, as time goes on, and society evolves, it costs much more to continue in the old way.

　　The new prime minister has long been groomed, so the inauguration ceremony caught minimum attention, as the media focused more on the sense of family rule in Singaporean politics.

　　Tradition suggests there is no need to deliberately avoid relatives when it comes to recommending talented people in Singapore. However, how to avoid family politics while guaranteeing capable successors might be much more difficult in a modern society.

　　Lee will face the issue unavoidably during his reign. In his inauguration speech, he has already listed the updating of the executive level of the country one of his top priorities.

　　As a general rule, a pre-arranged power shift easily restricts social creativity. In the long term, it is not inductive to building cohesiveness of the state. Lee has made strong calls for a tolerant and harmonious homeland in his speech. It represents the fact that the new leader has realized his prosperous country is confronting a transitional period. His proposal of enlarging living spaces for Singaporeans and permission for more opinions to be heard are seemingly signals for an increase in democracy and participation. Time will prove whether Singapore will move into a more open political era.

　　Economic Challenges

　　BOOMING BACK: The Singaporean economy has bounced back from the stagnation caused by terrorism concerns and the SARS epidemic

　　Singapore’s economic development represents its political success. Taking advantage of its unique geographical location, the first generation of the country’s leadership seized the rare historical opportunity and made Singapore a developed economy.

　　Unfortunately, the country suffered in the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Due to the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the outbreak of the SARS epidemic last year, Singapore’s long high-speed economic boost stagnated. The once job-affluent society is now plagued with unemployment, which reached 5.5 percent in 2003, and now stands at 4.5 percent.

　　The past months have witnessed a strong upswing. The second quarter saw a growth rate of 12.5 percent compared with the same period last year, while the annual increase is estimated to reach 8.5 percent. The economy has bounced back.

　　Singapore’s survival skills proved rather effective. However, greater challenges are lying ahead.

　　The country is very dependent on external markets. Foreign demands account for 70 percent of its total. Therefore, its economic performance is easily affected by external conditions. Economic fluctuation of its major markets or its neighbors’ sharpening their competitive edge will exert an influence on the economy.

　　The country has adopted a risk-precaution strategy in recent years. First, it has tried to enhance its economic performance, expand high-end sectors and tertiary industry, and reduce investment cost in the country to attract and keep more foreign investment.

　　Second, the country has sped up expansion of investment abroad. Some Western analysts predict that Singapore’s overseas assets will soar to $500 billion by 2020, several times its GDP.

　　When the economy is in trouble, the Singaporean Government fights with all its economic muscles. It has proposed that its nationals solve their own problems, and their economy becomes incentive-driven, providing a major challenge to society and government alike.

　　Diplomatic Headache

　　In his inauguration speech, Lee mentioned no other diplomatic affairs, except for his concern on the cross-Taiwan Strait tensions. When discussing individual responsibilities inside the cabinet, he said he would focus on domestic issues in the coming years, and asked ex-Prime Minister Goh to assist him in overseas affairs.

　　Singapore’s diplomacy is not always common sense. When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, Southeast Asian nations were very aware of their own identities. Against this background, U.S. troops had to withdraw from their Philippine military bases in 1992. Singapore, however, introduced U.S. military protection. It seemed Singapore was trying to achieve military balance in the region, with the help of a big foreign power.

　　In recent years, the country has increasingly stressed its own state interests in regional and global affairs with negligence of response from others. This occasionally gives the impression that it is drifting apart from regional neighbors. Its practice reached a climax when Lee insisted on his trip to Taiwan in July, despite the objections of the Chinese Government.

　　The then-Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister Lee’s trip to Taiwan was completely a diplomatic visit, when viewed from his schedule. When a deputy prime minister, along with several ministerial officials, talks with the Taiwan leader and enjoys official top-level treatment, it can never be called a private visit. It should not have happened at all.

　　As for the reason behind the trip, explanations vary. After all, diplomacy of a country is not aimed only at economic enclaves or military bases. Observers believe that some “international elements” were exerting influence during this visit. If so, the incident could be tragic for Singapore.

　　Lee’s Taiwan trip seriously frays Sino-Singaporean ties, and it undermines the foundation of mutual trust fostered between the two countries. To restore what has been destroyed is not easy. How to handle the aftermath will demonstrate the new prime minister’s diplomatic mentality and capability.

　　At the National Day Rally on August 22, Lee delivered a speech, in which he said his country would not change its one-China policy. “We know that ‘one China’ is a core interest of China’s. Singapore has always upheld ‘one China’ since it is in our own vital interest to do so. We took this position right from our independence in 1965,” noted the prime minister.

　　He also stressed Singapore’s opposition against “Taiwan independence,” saying “if the conflict is provoked by Taiwan, Singapore will not support Taiwan.”

　　On August 24, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kong Quan told a press conference in Beijing that Lee’s reiteration against “Taiwan independence” is conducive to regional peace and stability.

　　“We have noticed that Lee Hsien Loong has reaffirmed Singapore’s adherence to the one-China policy and its resolute opposition to ‘Taiwan Independence,’” said Kong. “This stance is in conformity with Singapore’s interest and the consensus of the international community, and is conducive to regional peace and stability.”

　　The spokesman added that the Chinese Government’s stance on the Taiwan issue is clear, that is, all nations having diplomatic ties with China should observe the one-China policy by action. China is opposed to any leaders from these nations visiting Taiwan or sending the wrong messages to “Taiwan independence” forces, he said.

　　If Lee did not make the Taiwan trip to intentionally damage Sino-Singaporean ties, he can always find chances to mend fences. The new leader’s diplomacy needs more time to prove itself.

　　By SHI YONGMING