Old Uygurs in Kashgar

　　A possible effect of the "one child" policy, however, is the hastened arrival of China's silver tide. Some experts admit that the consequences of the policy had not all been fully recognized when it was put into effect, but note that overpopulation is a far more problematic situation than an "aged" society. As one anonymous Chinese expert states, "[The early arrival of an aged society] is an inevitable price for solving the great pressure of overpopulation. If we hadn't carried out the policy, the uncontrolled increase in population would be too large of a burden to shoulder."

　　The aging trend nevertheless poses a host of dilemmas. There are currently 134 million Chinese of retirement age (age 60 for men, 55 for women), but the nation's rickety social security pension scheme covers 14 percent of the workforce, almost exclusively in the urban areas. Providing proper healthcare, shelter, food and social interactions for the elderly are all heads on this logistical hydra. At the city level, the effects are even more concentrated.

　　Aged City

　　"It is estimated that, by 2025," says Sun Pengbiao, "one out of every three Shanghainese will be over 60 years of age." Although China as a nation achieved its "aged" status as it entered the 21st century, its flagship city of Shanghai had already qualified in 1979. About 20 percent of the city's population is over 60.

　　This has caused a tremendous demand for elderly-focused health care, pensions, and welfare. The elderly of Shanghai have faced a dearth of adequate medical care in particular. Fear of costs and possible liability prevent nursing homes from providing medical attention for anything beyond colds and other minor ailments.

　　Another pressing issue arising in Shanghai and in other Chinese cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Dalian is the number of elderly living without family. These seniors, sometimes referred to as "empty nesters," form about 40 percent of Shanghai's elderly population. More than half live alone. Many of these "empty nesters" do not have family that visit frequently to help clean, cook, or provide company. They face the difficulty in providing for themselves and the possibility of a medical emergency occurring without assistance. They also face an even greater threat: Loneliness.

　　Luan Guizhi, 59, is an "empty nester" from Harbin. Though retired, she moved to Beijing to find work to supplement her meager pension, about 300 yuan (USD38) per month. Loneliness, she says, is her greatest fear. "My children live in Harbin. When I get birthday phone calls, this makes me happiest." While Luan hopes her children can support her, she realizes this is not always possible. "You give out to your children and hope to receive back. But sometimes work and money is not always there."

　　It seems odd that, in a country where the Confucian ideal of "filial piety," or dedication to family and elders, has been a major part of society since the Han Dynasty (206 B.C.-220 A.D.), more and more seniors are forced to fend for themselves. A vast majority of these live on pension alone. As rural workers move to the cities to find jobs and those in urban areas work long, hectic days, fewer find the time or resources to visit, much less support, their parents. This separation is becoming an even greater problem for children born of the "one child" policy.

　　"Family is important for supporting and caring for elders," says Hao Maishou of the Tianjin Social Science Academy, "but it will be a big burden for one couple to care for four parents, even more if you include their grandparents."

　　Many elderly already prefer to live alone, however. Guo Shuzhen, a 62-year-old Dalian resident, told China View, "I can find almost no topics to talk about with young people and I would rather live by myself." Parents are alienated as the generation gap grows between them and children reaping the benefits of China's boom times.

　　Landmine or gold mine?

　　The Chinese government at the local and national levels is taking steps to aid its elders, and these steps have already produced some notable results.

　　In 2001, the national Starlight Program was launched to help establish community-based services for seniors. Since its inception, about 20,000 elderly homes and community centers have been constructed. Schools, associations and publications all aimed at the elderly community are growing in number daily.