TWO billion people - a third of the entire human race - could be learning English by 2010 to 2015, according to a new report commissioned by the British Council. The main findings from the report, entitled "The Future of English", by language researcher David Graddol, raised serious issues related to the expansion of English.

　　"China is a major player in terms of people learning English over the next decades," Graddol said. Before his arrival in Shanghai in March 17, Graddol undertook some research in Guangzhou, capital of South China's Guangdong Province. In the primary schools Graddol visited, he found that students at grade 3 had already started to learn English.

　　"In China and some other developing countries, English is used as part of the strategy for expanding the middle class," Graddol said. In an era during which English has been repositioned as a "basic skill" it is easily imaginable that countries failing to use English will be "excluded" from the global economy.

　　Looking at the educational system in many European universities, Graddol pointed out that students are often refused permission to graduate if they do not have a proficiency in English. More universities are teaching through English and the situation in higher education has forced students to become proficient in English while they are still in secondary schools.

　　"Governments from Europe to Malaysia appear to have embarked on ambitious educational reforms on an unprecedented scale and English is rapidly becoming integrated so deeply into the curriculum that it will cease to be a foreign language for many, perhaps most, of the world's citizens," Graddol said.

　　He also emphasized that the position of English depended on a nation's political policy. China's huge policy shift towards introducing English at primary level was especially interesting to him. This pattern, which has been carried out in many countries, for instance, the Northern European countries and India, is likely to increase the number of Chinese people who are bilingual.

　　In Graddol's eyes, Chinese people are entering into new relationships by learning English and their lifestyles seem to be becoming more Westernized.

　　Historical factors

　　"The prevalence of a certain language has a close relationship with the role its nation played in world history," said Yu Hai, a sociologist at Fudan University. Lying behind the widespread use of modern English, Yu suggested, is the globalization of American culture.

　　From the perspective of linguistics, each language enjoys an equal status, but usage is deeply affected by a variety of social factors, according to Zhu Lei from the graduate school of Shanghai International Studies University.

　　As an internationally used language, Zhu said that one peculiar feature of English was its wide acceptance of foreign words, which helped to position it well as a medium of international communication. Whether American English, "Queen's English", Australian English, Indian English, Singapore English or Nigerian English, "varieties of English have appeared to promote communication between people of different nationalities," Zhu said.

　　"But we cannot really look at language on its own, without thinking about the cultural identity behind it," Graddol said. "Non-native English speakers are often keen to establish their own communication strategies and new cultural forms."

　　In his report, Graddol said that in 50 years time, the boom period for the spread of English would be over. "The fact that the world is learning English is not particularly good news for native English speakers who cannot also speak another language. The world is rapidly becoming multi-lingual and English is only one of the languages people in other countries are learning. There is a rush towards Chinese in some parts of the world and Arabic and Spanish are both key languages of the future," Graddol said. "The future of English is more complicated."

　　"The life of a language is not decided by whether it is beautiful or not, but rather by the profitability of speaking this particular language," Yu said, who agreed with Graddol's prediction that Mandarin, Hindi-Urdu, Spanish and Arabic would be new challengers to English in the future.

　　Economic influences

　　"The power of speech is always connected with the power of economics and technology," said Xu Yulong, professor at the Shanghai International Studies University. The rising popularity of Mandarin is primarily due to China's increasing impact on the whole world. "People focus on entering the Chinese market and more Chinese tourists are going overseas," Graddol said.

　　Another reason that people around the world are becoming interested in learning Chinese, Zhu said, was Western fascination with Oriental culture. "The huge distance makes the East a mysterious land for people in the West," Zhu said.

　　Even given the premise that Chinese have a strong sense of national pride, Yu said that it was still acceptable for more people to learn English. "The serious problem is that some people regard English learning as no more than a fashion," he said.

　　In co-operation with the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission, in 2004 Yu undertook an investigation among students of all ages, from institutions ranging from primary schools to universities. The survey focused on the English learning situation of students, covering their daily language learning time, the goal of learning English and the nationality students would prefer if they had the choice. About 30 to 40 per cent of those surveyed said that they would like to be Americans.

　　Yu said that the use of English in China, especially in big cities like Shanghai, was tending to change from the role of a guest to that of a host. The survey showed that in Shanghai's most prosperous areas, slogans on signs were written in both English and Chinese. What surprised Yu even more was that in some places, there were only English signs, with no Chinese at all.

　　"We cannot alienate ourselves from international communications by refusing to learn English, but we should have a consciousness of Mandarin being in a situation that is approaching the brink of danger," Yu said. "We know the French Government has made language protection into a national strategy."

　　Speaking of this, Yu said that he was happy to see the national consciousness of Chinese had been aroused. At the end of 2004, with the strong support of China's central government, more Confucian schools would be set up in foreign countries, greatly promoting Mandarin teaching. "All of these steps contribute to China's prosperity. Otherwise, people would just accept English unreservedly and unthinkingly."