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When numbers do not add up
http://www.sina.com.cn 2005/05/16 18:44  Shanghai Daily

  Statistics are supposed to be a scientific domain ruled by objectivity, but often they are not. Some officials inflate figures for personal gain.

  Wildly exaggerated figures about food production during the Great Leap Forward campaign from 1958 to early 1960 have provided a classic case of manipulating economic numbers for untoward political gains.

  Steeped in economic fantasy, commune officials at the time unabashedly reported mind-boggling figures such as wheat productivity of 60,000 kilograms per 667 square meters and year-on-year growth of 69 percent in summer crop production.

  As the numbers were transmitted up the bureaucratic hierarchy, each level added another 5 or 10 percent.

  When the ballooned numbers finally reached the top leadership, everyone was happy, though a bit astonished.

  The distorted statistics, however, covered a great famine in the countryside. A plain lesson learned in perhaps the bitterest way: people cannot live off non-existent harvests.

  Unfortunately, it seems some local officials today have failed to grasp the meaning of this lesson.

  News reports on statistical hype are rife. The latest example is the well-calculated tourism figures for the May holiday.

  It's amazing that provincial statistics bureaus could put together the numbers from sightseeing spots, as well as the hotel and dining industries and disclose the results just one day after the seven-day holiday.

  It's even more amazing that several provinces, such as Henan, Fujian and Shandong, reported similar average individual spending of around 500 yuan (US$60). The chance is slim these provinces - each bestowed with vastly different tourist attractions - would have similar revenues during the holiday.

  A story in last Wednesday's Beijing Times shows how things work. According to the newspaper, an anonymous tourist official said their numbers were usually mapped out before the holiday. The year-on-year growth was also calculated very carefully so that his boss would not "lose face."

  That's not the weirdest part of the story though. When the newspaper's reporter called Zhang Haiyan, an official of the National Bureau of Tourism, to comment on dubious provincial numbers, she said: "go seek the answer yourself, now that you doubt the figures." Then she hung up.

  The official may not have been part of statistical inflation games, but she apparently did not want to see the manipulated figures challenged either. If she was astonished and angry at local officials for fabricating statistics she would have given the reporter more help.

  It's too sensational to say that coloring tourism-related statistical data or falsifying economic growth numbers will cause another nationwide famine or any other disaster. But fabricating reality will affect policy-making. That can lead to a huge waste in natural and human resources, shattering economic and social stability.

  People are punished for making counterfeit money or bogus products. They are fined and put in jail.

  But when it comes to those who create phony numbers to fulfill personal ambitions, too often nothing is done.


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