Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet

　　Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet

　　科学家认为：2007年可能成为迄今最热的年份

　　(2006-2007学年第23期)

2007年可能成为迄今最热的年份

厄尔尼诺

刘颖 译

　　{1}LONDON — Deepening drought in Australia. Stronger typhoons in Asia. Floods in Latin America. British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Nino climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters — and make 2007 the world’s hottest year on record.

　　{2}The warmest year on record is 1998, when the average global temperature was 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the long-term average of 57 degrees. Though such a change appears small, incremental differences can, for example, add to the ferocity of storms by evaporating more steam off the ocean.

　　{3}There is a 60 percent chance that the average global temperature for 2007 will match or break the record, Britain’s Meteorological Office said. The consequences of the high temperatures could be felt worldwide.

　　{4}El Nino, which is now under way in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to last until May, occurs irregularly. But when it does, winters in Southeast Asia tend to become milder, summers in Australia get drier, and Pacific storms can be more intense. The U.N.’s Food Aid Organization has warned that rising temperatures could wreak agricultural havoc.

　　{5}In Australia, which is struggling through its worst drought on record, the impact on farmers could be devastating. The country has already registered its smallest wheat harvest in a decade, food prices are rising, and severe water restrictions have put thousands of farmers at risk of bankruptcy.

　　{6}“The short-term effects of global warming on crop production are very uneven,” said Daniel Hillel, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research.“I warn against making definitive predictions regarding any one season’s weather.”

　　{7}What is clear is that the cumulative effect of El Nino and global warming are taking the Earth’s temperatures to record heights.

　　{8}Another more immediate effect of the rising temperatures may be political.

　　{9}Australian Prime Minister John Howard is already under fire for refusing to link his country’s drought to global warming. In Britain, Friends of the Earth campaign director Mike Childs said the weather service’s 2007 prediction “underlined the gap between the government’s rhetoric and action.”

　　{10}Other environmental groups said the new report added weight to the movement to control greenhouse gases.

　　{11}It came a day after the weather service reported that 2006 had been Britain’s warmest year since 1659, and three months after Sir Nicholas Stern, a senior government economist, estimated that the effects of climate change could eventually cost nations 5 percent to 20 percent of global gross domestic product each year.

　　{12}Figures for 2006 are not yet complete, but the weather service said temperatures were high enough to rank among the top 10 hottest years on record.

　　{13}“The evidence that we’re doing something very dangerous with the climate is now amassing,” said Campaign against Climate Change coordinator Philip Thornhill.

　　{14}“We need to put the energy and priority (into climate change) that is being put into a war effort,” he said. “It’s a political struggle to get action done — and these reports help.”

　　参考译文：

　　{1}伦敦消息：澳大利亚干旱日趋严峻，台风在亚洲愈刮愈烈，拉丁美洲洪水肆虐。据英国气候学家预测，由于厄尔尼诺气候卷土重来，温室气体排放量增至新高，两者相结合可能会引发新一轮生态灾害，也使2007年可能成为世界上有气象记录以来最热的年份。

　　{2}1998年是有气象记录以来最热的年份，全球平均气温比长期平均气温值(57华氏度)高1.2华氏度。这一气温变化看似微小，但是，举个例子说，渐增的温差可能会加剧海面水汽的蒸发，从而使暴风雨愈演愈烈。

　　{3}英国气象部声称，2007年全球平均气温将会与1998年的平均气温持平，甚至超过这一历史记录，出现这种情况的概率为60%。温度升高带来的种种后果会在全球范围内体现出来。

　　{4}目前，“厄尔尼诺”已经在太平洋海域形成，预计该现象将持续至五月份。“厄尔尼诺”爆发极不规律，可是一旦爆发，东南亚的冬天往往会变得温和，澳大利亚的夏天会变得干旱，而太平洋上的风暴则会变得更加猛烈。联合国粮食援助组织已经发出警告：不断上升的气温可能会给农业生产造成严重的破坏。

　　{5}澳大利亚正遭受有史以来最严重的旱灾，干旱给农民造成的影响是极具破坏性的。今年已成为澳大利亚近十年中小麦收成最少的一年，粮食价格上涨，严格的用水限制使得成千上万的农民面临着破产的风险。

　　{6}“全球变暖对粮食生产所产生的短期影响时好时坏，”哥伦比亚大学气候体系研究中心的研究员丹尼尔•希勒尔说，“我告诫大家不要对任何一个季节的天气作出确切的预言。”

　　{7}显而易见的是，由于厄尔尼诺现象以及全球变暖的影响日积月累，地球的温度将会达到历史新高。

　　{8}造成温度升高的另一个更为直接的原因可能是政治原因。

　　{9}澳大利亚首相约翰•霍华德因为拒绝承认澳大利亚的干旱是全球变暖的结果而备受指责。英国“地球之友”运动总指挥迈克•蔡尔兹认为，气象局对于2007年的预测“凸显了政府言辞和行动之间的巨大差异。”

　　{10}其他环境组织认为，新报告使得控制温室气体的运动更为举足轻重。

　　{11}新报告是在气象观测组织发布2006年是英国自1659年以来最热的年份之后的第二天发布的，而三个月前，政府高级经济学家尼古拉斯•斯特恩爵士估计：受气候变化的影响，全球各个国家可能最终会每年耗费5%-20%的国内生产总值。

　　{12}2006年的测量数字还不完整，但是气象观测组织认为，气温的升高足以使2006年跻身有气象记录以来最热的10个年份之列。

　　{13}“现在，证明我们正在对气候做出非常危险的举动的事例越来越多，”“反对气候变化运动”协调员菲利普•桑希尔说。

　　{14}他说：“我们需要像准备一场战争一样，把精力和重点投入到遏止气候变化的运动中。将诺言付诸行动是一种政治斗争，这些气候报告有助于促进行动的实施。”