瑞银预测：南非世界杯巴西将夺冠

　　Brazil was the winner of 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan。

　　巴西队曾获2002年韩国/日本世界杯足球赛的冠军。

　　UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning。

　　瑞士银行的分析人士利用数学模型对今年南非世界杯鹿死谁手进行了预测-并且称，英格兰队和西班牙队仅有4%的夺冠几率。

　　Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said。

　　瑞士投资银行表示，曾获五次世界杯冠军的巴西队是本届世界杯的夺冠热门，有22%的夺冠几率。

　　The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favorite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also has just a 4pc chance, it said。

　　瑞银财富管理研究小组指出，欧洲杯冠军、赌球者的最爱西班牙队只有4%的夺冠几率；而卡佩罗率领的英格兰队也区区只有4%的夺冠几率。

　　"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favorite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday."And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage。

　　上周三，瑞银的全球证券研究小组在一份针对2010年世界杯的调查报告中称，“球迷们可能觉得西班牙队被瑞银的这个预测模型低估了。英国的球迷也会觉得英格兰队被低估了。然而，这两支队伍往往到了决赛阶段就表现不佳。在头三个赛季里，西班牙和英格兰位列诸强，但却纷纷止步于四分之一决赛。”

　　"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

　　“巴西最有可能赢。”

　　UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra。

　　瑞银根据各个球队的历史成绩和当前的积分排名情况(积分不单单考虑到球队近期的输赢，还考虑到了比赛中的具体情况。比如，击败一支强队(如巴西队、西班牙队)能够获得的积分要比击败一直弱队(如马耳他队、安道尔队)多很多。)，利用“经济计量工具箱和定量模型”来预测本届世界杯的冠军得主。The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said。

　　瑞银还认为，本届世界杯东道主南非队虽然近来士气不旺，也有78%的几率能进入淘汰赛。巴西队的晋级率位居第二，为74%。晋级率最低的当属巴拉圭队，仅为29%。England was rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals。

　　英格兰队的出线率为63%，进入半决赛的几率为21%。The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists。

　　在2006年世界杯的角逐中，瑞银利用预测模型预测意大利队最有可能夺冠，并最终言中，该预测模型也因此受到了人们的好评。此外，瑞银还曾成功预测了16强中的13支球队以及八强中的6支球队。

　　However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said。

　　不过，该模型在2008年欧锦赛中预测的夺冠热门球队却未能进入第二轮。瑞银财富管理团队对此表示，“对该模型的预测能力我们还是保守一点为妙。”UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

　　瑞银预测能够进入四分之一决赛的球队

　　Country              Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

　　Brazil               22pc

　　Germany              18pc

　　Italy                13pc

　　Netherlands           8pc

　　France                6pc

　　Argentina             5pc

　　Spain                 4pc

　　England               4pc