2014 will determine course of century, says Cambridge professor

　　A dramatic event that will determine the course of the 21st century will take place in 2014, according to a Cambridge University academic。

　　Professor Nicholas Boyle claims that events of the fateful year will decide whether the world enjoys peace and prosperity over the coming decades or suffers war and poverty。

　　He believes financial turmoil could be the trigger for the crisis, and that the reactions of American leaders will be crucial to its outcome. He also thinks new global organisations will be key to securing stability rather than nation-states。

　　Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle of their second decade. In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism. A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715. The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability across Europe. But in 1914 the First World War broke out。

　　Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published on Thursday, said: "The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?"

　　剑桥教授推算“2014人类转折年”

　　英国剑桥大学教授近日预测，2014年将会有大事件发生，21世纪将会就此发生转变。

　　据英国《每日电讯报》17日报道，英国剑桥大学教授尼古拉斯•波义尔称该2014年发生的重大事件将决定整个世界的走向：和平繁荣抑或战乱贫穷。

　　波义尔教授称金融动荡将会是“2014危机”的导火索，美国领导人对此的反应和采取的行动会对未来产生重大影响。他提出，只有结束单一民族国家的时代，引进某种有效的全球性管理机制，依靠国际合作才能取得稳定的新局面。

　　波义尔教授解释说自己的推断来源于对历史的分析：自16世纪至今，决定未来格局的世纪大事都发生在该世纪的20年代中叶。1517年，马丁•路德将《95条论纲》张贴在德国威登堡大教堂门上，掀起一场席卷欧洲的宗教改革。1618年，神圣罗马帝国内战演变成持续30年的宗教流血冲突，欧洲主要国家纷纷卷入。1715年，英国汉诺威王朝的确立，真正稳固了新教地位，结束宗教争执。1815年，维也纳会议开启了19世纪欧洲相对和平的局面。1914年，第一次世界大战爆发。

　　在17日出版的新书《2014———如何度过一场新的世界危机》中，波义尔教授指出，“一个世纪的特征会在该世纪的第2个十年内显露出来，我们这个世纪又怎会不同？”