双语环球:2010“失败国家指数”出炉(图)

http://www.sina.com.cn   2010年06月24日 14:19   环球时报
2010“失败国家指数”:国家失败是慢性病
2010“失败国家指数”:国家失败是慢性病

  The 10 states that fill out the top ranks of this year's Failed States Index are a sadly familiar bunch. Shattered Somalia has been the No. 1 failed state for three years running, and none of the current top 10 has shown much improvement, if any, since FOREIGN POLICY and the Fund for Peace began publishing the index in 2005. State failure, it seems, is a chronic condition。

  This year's index draws on 90,000 publicly available sources to analyze 177 countries and rate them on 12 metrics of state decay -- from refugee flows to economic implosion, human rights violations to security threats. Taken together, a country's performance on this battery of indicators tells us how stable -- or unstable -- it is。

  At the top of the list, Somalia saw yet another year plagued by lawlessness and chaos, with pirates plying the coast while radical Islamist militias tightened their grip on the streets of Mogadishu. Afghanistan and Iraq traded places on the index as both states contemplated the exit of US combat troops, while already isolated Sudan saw its dictator, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, defy an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and the war-ravaged Democratic Republic of the Congo once again proved itself a country in little more than name。

  Even good news for these plagued states came tempered by hard facts. A coalition government in Zimbabwe whipped history's second-worst bout of hyperinflation, fostering the country's first year of positive growth in more than a decade, and Sri Lanka crushed its Tamil Tiger insurgency. But Robert Mugabe's security goons still rule Harare unchecked, while the Sri Lankan government stands accused of committing gross human rights violations。

  Given time and the right circumstances, countries do recover. Sierra Leone and Liberia, for instance, no longer rank among the top 20 failing states, and Colombia has become a stunning success story. But the overall story of the Failed States Index is one of wearying constancy, and 2010 is proving to be no different: Crises in Guatemala, Honduras, Iran, and Nigeria -- among others -- threaten to push those unstable countries to the breaking point。

  据美国《外交政策》杂志6月21日报道,2010年“失败国家指数”日前出炉,前十位再次被几个战乱国包揽,真所谓“令人伤感的熟悉”。其中,饱受创伤的索马里连续第三年“荣登”榜首,同其他进入前十的国家一样,自2005起《外交政策》杂志与“和平基金会”共同发布“失败国家指数”以来,国情并没有多大好转,看来“国家失败症”是一种慢性疾病。

  据了解,“失败国家指数”的评定基于177个国家的9万份公开资料,评定标准则包括难民流量、经济衰退、人权问题以及国家安全等一共12项。据此,一个国家稳定与否得以盖棺定论。

  位居排行榜第一的索马里过去一年里依旧“无组织、无纪律”,海盗继续猖獗,而伊斯兰激进分子对索马里首都摩加迪沙的掌控有增无减。阿富汗和伊拉克如今都面临美军撤退后何去何从的考验,相似的不幸让二者在前十名排行榜里也只是换了个位而已。苏丹的独裁统治者奥马尔-哈桑-艾哈迈德-巴希尔公然反抗国际军事法庭的抓捕,而刚果民主共和国再一次证明了自己的“民主”只是徒有其名而已。

  即便有好消息,严峻的事实也让人无法兴奋起来。津巴布韦总统穆加贝与总理万吉拉伊签署权力分享协议后,津史上第二严重通胀得到控制,国家经济出现了十多年来的首次增长,同时斯里兰卡也去掉“猛虎”心病。然而,穆加贝的安全“暴徒”仍在津巴布韦首都哈拉雷无法无天,斯里兰卡政府则因侵犯人权受到指责。

  时间和良好的国际环境能够治愈这些国家的创伤。例如,“失败国家指数”前二十名里已经不见了塞拉利昂和利比里亚的身影,而哥伦比亚已经翻身成了成功楷模。但是大部分的“失败国家”还是不见起色。此次排名也毫无例外:危地马拉、洪都拉斯、伊朗以及尼日利亚等国的危机已经将这些国家推向崩溃边缘。

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