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Key Indices
http://www.sina.com.cn 2004/07/19 16:32  新浪教育

  Equity indices

  You should be familiar with the major equity indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA), Standard & Poor 500 (S&P500), Standard & Poor 400 (S&P400), Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000, and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices. With economic globalization, seamless capital flow, technology interconnectivity such as Electronic Communication Networks(ECNs) and cross-border stock exchange trading platforms, you should also be familiar with leading stock indices of major exchanges around the world.

  The following is a list of some of the key global equity indices:

  So what are some of the basic knowledge and concepts on equity indices that you should equip yourself with? We examine these knowledge in the context of the S&P 500 Index, the most widely used benchmarks of US equity performance.

  Is the index capitalization weighted or price weighted?

  The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index(this is calculated as the current stock price times the number of shares outstanding) whereas the DJIA is price-weighted.For a price-weighted index, constituent stocks with higher price will have a lager impact on the index than constituent stocks with lower price.

  How many constituents form the index?

  There are 500 constituent stocks in the S&P 500, and 30 constituent stocks in DJIA.

  What was the historical high and low of the index and when (month, year) did this happen?

  S&P 500 hit an all time high of 1527 in March 2000, and DJIA’s recent high was achieved in January 2002, where it closed at 11,723.

  This knowledge provides you with a historical perspective, especially when the market has gone through bear market corrections.

  What are the 52-week high and low?

  At the time of this writing, the 52-week high and low are 1199 and 842 respectively for the S&P 500, and 10,600 and 7,700 for the DJIA.

  It is customary for people in the financial industry to keep a perspective of the 52-week period high and low instead of calendar year.

  What is the market capitalization represented by the index? And what is the figure of the capitalization as a percentage of the GDP?

  As of July 31, 2002, the total market value of S&P 500 is US$8.4 trillion. The U.S. GDP is approximately US$10 trillion, thus the market capitalization is 84% of the GDP.

  What is the Price to Earning (P/E) ratio based on current year earning estimated and what is the historical average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index?

  Since World War II, the actual P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Index has been as low as 7 (reached in the late 1940s and again during the 1974-1981 period, when inflation depressed the value of future earnings) while reaching a peak of nearly 23 in 1961. Prior to the October 1987 stock market crash, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was above 20, but in recent years, the ratio has averaged higher. At the end of 1998, the P/E ratio for the Index was a record year end high of 32.27 (based on actual trailing 12-month earnings).

  What is the dividend yield for the S&P 500 index?

  The current dividend yield for the S&P 500 index is indicatively at 1.72%. Historically, since World War II, indicative dividend yields for the S&P500 have ranged as high as 8.69% in 1942. Between 1962 and 1994, the average indicated dividend yield for the S&P 500 Index was approximately 4%. However, the bull markets in the 1990s drove yields down to unprecedented low levels. At year end 1998, the indicated dividend yield for the S&P 500 Index was mere 1.34%, a record year end low.

  What is the earnings growth rate forecast for the S&P 500 index?

  The historical growth rate of the S&P 500 index is depicted in the graph below.

  S&P 500 Long Term Consensus Earnings Growth Rate

  For those who are seeking more advance knowledge, the following are some additional questions that will set you apart from the crowd:

  How many industry sectors are represented in the index? What are they?

  Ten industry sectors are represented in the S&P 500 Index, they are: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Health Care, Industrial, Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services and Utilities.

  What are the relative weightings (percentage) of the major sectors represented in the index?

  The major industry sectors are the following:

  What are the differences between indices such as the S&P 500 and S&P 400?

  The S&P 400 represents the Mid-Cap stocks in America, whereas the S&P 500 represents the Big-Cap stocks. The companies chosen for the S&P 500 generally have the largest market value within their industry. The other key difference between the two indices is there are no financial stocks in the S&P 400 index.

  What are the rules for adjustments of the component stocks in the index?

  Maintaining the S&P 500 Index includes monitoring and completing the adjustments for company additions and deletions, share changes, stock splits, stock dividends, and stock price adjustments due to restructurings or spin-offs. Some corporate actions, such as stock splits and stock dividends, require simple changes in the common shares outstanding and the stock prices of the companies in the Index. Other corporate actions, such as share issuances, change the market value of the Index and require an Index Divisor adjustment to prevent the value of the Index from changing due to the corporate action.

  Adjusting the Index Divisor for a change in market value leaves the value of the S&P 500 Index unaffected by the corporate action. This helps keep the value of the Index accurate as a barometer of stock market performance and ensures that the movement of the Index does not reflect the corporate actions of the companies in the Index. All Divisor adjustments are made after trading hours and after the calculation of the closing value of the S&P 500 Index. Any change in the S&P 500 Index Divisor also affects the corresponding Standard & Poor’s major industry sector, economic sector, and individual industry group divisors.

  The following table summarizes the types of S&P 500 Index maintenance adjustments and indicates whether a divisor adjustment is required.

  S&P 500 -TYPES OF MAINTENANCE ADJUSTMENTS

重要指数

  重要的股票市场指数

  你应该对主要的股票市场指数有所了解,例如道·琼斯工业指数(DJIA)、标准普尔500(Standard & Poor 500)、标准普尔400(Standard & Poor 400)、纳斯达克100(Nasdaq 100)、罗素千种增长指数(Russell 1000)、摩根士丹利股价指数(MSCI,Morgan Stanley Capital International indices)等等。实际上,随着经济的全球化,除了要知道无缝的资金流和科技相互接联(seamless capital flow and technology interconnectivity)如电子交易系统(ECNs, Electronic Communication Networks)和跨国股票交易平台的出现,你还应熟悉全球主要交易所的领先股票指数。

  以下是全球股市重要指数名单:

  对于这些股票指数,我们应该掌握哪些基本的知识和概念呢?让我们分析一下标准普尔500指数——在美国最常用的、衡量美国股票表现的基准指数,我们用它来检验一下自己的掌握程度。

  ·它是资本加权指数还是价格加权指数?

  标准普尔500是资本加权指数(股票价格×流通股数);而道琼斯工业指数是价格加权指数。作为价格加权指数,价格高的成分股比价格低的成分股对指数的影响力更大;对于资本加权指数来说,流通总市值高的成分股则会比流通总市值低的成分股对该指数的影响力大。

  ·每一个指数由多少成分股构成?

  标准普尔500指数由500个成分股构成;道琼斯工业指数由30个成分股构成。

  ·标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业指数历史最高点分别是多少?何年何月发生的?

  标准普尔500指数的最高点是2000年3月的1527点;道琼斯工业指数的最近的峰值出现在2002年1月,收盘的时候达到了11723点。

  掌握这点知识可以让你从股票市场历史发展的角度,对其有全面的了解,特别是当股市正在经历熊市回调的时候尤为重要。

  ·什么是52周的最高价和最低价?

  笔者写到此处时,标准普尔500指数的52周最高价和最低价分别是1199和842,道琼斯工业指数的52周最高价和最低价分别是10600和7700。

  在日常操作上,金融界的业内人士习惯于关注过去52周来的最高价和最低价,而不是依据历年。

  ·指数所代表的流通股权市值有多少?它在国内生产总值中占多大比重?

  根据各项指数记载的情况,在2002年7月31日,标准普尔500指数的市场总值达到8.4万亿美金。美国的国内生产总值指数达到约10万亿美金,这样人们就可以算出该股指占国内生产总值的比重为84%。

  ·该指数根据目前估计的收益,市盈率是多少?标准普尔500指数的历史平均市盈率是多少?

  从二战以来,标准普尔500指数的市盈率曾经达到最低值7(这个值出现于20世纪40年代末;后又在1974年至1978年间再次出现,当时的高通胀率使未来的收入贬值);在1961年,标准普尔500指数达到其最高值约23。在1987年10月的股灾(October19 Black Monday)爆发之前,标准普尔500的市盈率保持在20以上。但是近几年的平均值更高了:截至1998年底,市盈率指数一度达到历史新高32.27(依据过去12个月的实际收益计算得来)。

  ·标准普尔500的股息收益率是什么?

  标准普尔500目前的股息收益率是1.72%。自二战以来,标准普尔500的历史最高纪录是1942年的8.69%。在1962年至1994年间,标准普尔500的平均股息收益率约为4%。但是,20世纪90年代的牛市使这个指数降低到前所未有的最低值。在1998年底,标准普尔500的收益率仅仅为1.34%,这是历史上最低水平的一年。

  ·什么是标准普尔500预期盈余增长率?

  标准普尔500历史盈利增长率如下图所示:

  如果你想掌握更高层次的知识,下面这些知识可以使你从应征者中脱颖而出:

  ·标准普尔500指数有多少个抽样部门?分别是哪些部门?

  标准普尔500指数中包括10个部门,分别是:消费者非必需品(consumer discretionary)、消费者常用品(consumer staples)、能源、金融、医疗、工业、信息技术、材料、电讯服务和公用事业。

  ·这些主要行业部门在指数构成中所占的比例分别是多少?

  各主要行业所占比例如下:

  ·标准普尔500指数和标准普尔400指数有哪些区别?

  标准普尔400代表的是美国股市的中盘股,而标准普尔500代表的是大盘股。列入标准普尔500的公司通常在各自的行业内拥有最大的市场价值。两个指数的另一个明显差别是在标准普尔400指数中没有金融股。

  ·指数中成分股的变换规则是什么?

  对标准普尔500指数进行维护的内容包括监控并完成公司(成分股)的增加和删减、股数变动(Share Change)、股票拆股(stock splits)、股票分红(stock dividends),对由于资产重组或子公司剥离(spin-offs)造成的股价进行调整。此外,一些公司行为例如拆股和股票分红,需要对指数中该公司的普通股流通股数和股价作一些简单的调整。其他的公司行为,如股票增发、将会改变指数的市值,需要做“指数除数”调整(index divisor adjustment)以防止由于公司行为造成的指数变动。

  通过调整“指数除数”来反映股票市场的价格的变动,可以使标准普尔500指数的价格不受公司行为的影响。这样既可保证指数作为股票市场“晴雨表”的精确性,又能同时确保指数不受到公司调整股数的影响。所有的指数除数调整,都是在股票交易所交易结束之后和计算完标准普尔500的价值之后才进行的。标准普尔500的指数除数的任何变化都会相应影响到标准普尔的工业部门、金融部门和各附属行业的指数除数。

  下表归纳了标准普尔500指数维持调整(maintenance adjustments)的类型,并标明了是否需要进行除数调整。

  标准普尔500——维持调整的类型




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