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Understanding the Facts and Mechanics
http://www.sina.com.cn 2004/07/19 16:55  新浪教育

  Understanding the Facts and Mechanics of Major Transactions Well

  In Corporate Finance

  If you are seeking for a new associate position in corporate finance, you may want to spend time researching in-depth into a few high profiles or recent major mergers & acquisition deals. The specific knowledge you are seeking would be the rational behind the acquisition. If applicable, you want to find out why the acquired firm was willing to sell. The basis of valuation is always something that interests everyone, including investors, financial industry practitioners, industry people and employees of the companies in play. What were the valuations parameters cited by investment research analysts and financial columns (the leading financial newspapers or magazine such as The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Forbes, Barrons, etc.) and what were the controversies, (if any), surrounding the transaction?

  You should clearly understand the financing methods employed by the acquirer. They usually involve utilizing cash, bank debt, raising funds through selling of assets, private equity, issuance of equities and/or debt securities, or combination of the above. Pay attention to changes in the capital structure before and after the acquisition and how the company intends to generate cash flows to pay off the debt.

  Shortly after the merger acquisition, the combined company usually embarks on a series of cost cutting measures, initiatives to streamline business operations and divestiture programs.

  In Equity Capital Market

  If you are looking for a position in the equity capital market, you should look into a major initial public offering. The specific knowledge you are looking for are valuations and industry comparable factors, order taking methods, pricing mechanics, organization of selling group, investor type and market perception versus the actual after-listing performance.

  Valuation: What were the valuation methods used in this case, such as P/E ratio, EV/EBITDA*, Price-to-book, P/E to sustainable growth rate, Price-to-Sales, etc.

  *Arrived at by dividing the Enterprise Value (EV=Market Value + Debt-Cash) by the Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortization (EBITDA).

  Order Taking: What was the method chosen for this deal? An American-style book- building; first-come, first-serve; tender offer, etc. In some cases, the order taking method is inextricably linked to the pricing. In other transactions involving privatization of government-owned companies, it may have a special arrangement where a certain portion was set-aside for citizen retail investors.

  Organization of selling group: Who were the lead manager and co-lead managers? Who was the global coordinator if it was a global offering deal?

  In Securities Sales

  If you are looking to pursue a career in securities sales, the preparation should include learning about two to three companies in different industries that interest you the most and be ready to discuss the following topics with confidence:

  Investment Theme

  Every investment recommendation of a company must be accompanied by an investment theme. The investment theme is the central thesis that defines the merits of the company as an investment. It characterizes its business competitive advantage and factors that will help the company to achieve its financial targets.

  Example:

  Wal-Mart is a superbly-managed mass merchandiser that is expected to deliver 8 to 10 percent earning growth rate for the next 3 years, notwithstanding a low inflationary environment with anemic economic outlook in the U.S. It can achieve this above-industry growth rate through its continuous improvements in the inventory control program and cost savings through merchandize sourcing programs in China and S.E. Asia. The super-mart stores rollout in China is gaining momentum as the Chinese government has further relaxed foreign ownership restriction on mass merchandisers. Business in China is expected to contribute positively to earnings by the first quarter of 2003. With a P/E to growth rate at the mid-point of its historical range of 2.2 to 1.6, it offers a great opportunity for growth-oriented investors, and looks attractive even to value investors.

  Valuation

  Relevant valuation tools

  The investment research community has developed different valuation tools for different industries. This is necessary because some of the industries are capital asset intensive with substantial depreciation, such as capital goods manufacturers. Other industries may have little capital asset but with high research and development cost such as software companies. Even companies within the same industry may have very different strategies for achieving growth. For example, some companies rarely make acquisitions but rely on organic growth, whereas their competitors in the same business may rely on aggressive but disciplined acquisition programs to attain earning growth. The latter will have high amounts of goodwill amortization. Hence, applying the suitable valuation tools is essential in the accurate evaluation of companies in different industries.

  The tables on previous pages illustrate how companies in an industry are evaluated relative to their peers in their industry group. The companies are evaluated comprehensively across the various measures, which reflect growth, earnings, returns, productivity, valuation and dividends.

  Such analyses will enable investment professionals to make measured investment decisions. A probable scenario is when an investment committee decides to allocate further investment funds to big cap stocks in the consumer, cosmetics and household products sector, so as to take advantage of its relative stability in a very volatile market. The following are the typical steps in the decision making process:

  Which are the stocks that still display good relative valuation? From the above tables, one could arrive at the following three names, Kimberly Clark, Procter & Gamble and Unilever PLC. They stand out as their key relative valuation measures-Relative Price Earnings (PE) Ratio, Price/Cash Earnings (CE), Price Earnings Ratio/Earnings Growth Rate(PEG) and Enterprise Value (EV)/EBITDA multiple-are clearly below their peers.

  One could then focus on the fundamentals as projected by the earnings estimations. Unilever PLC would be distinguished by its strong projected earnings growth of 25% FY2001.

  But funds requiring investments to pay dividends will not find this stock attractive as their dividends and yield are significantly lower than their peers in the industry.

  Thus if dividends are not a major concern, Unilever PLC could be the stock chosen at this stage. But before any decision is taken, there are more questions to be addressed:

  How confident is one with the numbers provided in the above tables? Are the numbers provided in the above analysis too aggressive, out of line with market projections and consensus? One might have to do some scenario analysis to evaluate the downside risks if the projected growth does not take place.

  What are the risks factors, macro, industry and company specific in the horizon that could derail the fundamentals? Are risks pertaining to Unilever PLC’s fundamentals more pronounced and apparent? What are the profit margins of the various companies, and what are the risk factors that would have a negative impact on this critical component? How does the balance sheet look like, e.g. its debt equity ratio versus its peers and industry? What impact does projected interest rate movements have on the balance sheet and business operations/profitability?

  What are the fundamental driving factors behind the strong earnings growth projections? Are the assumptions realistic?

  Thus a company’s numbers relative to its peers and industry is a good starting point to have a good macro overview of its strengths and competitive positioning, although one has to look further into company-specific factors as well (e.g. Business Composition, Management Team, Differentiating Factors, Risks-discussed further below) before making an investment decision.

  Relative to its growth potential:

  This is another useful valuation parameter in addition to the ones seen above. In this ratio, one compares the Price Earnings Ratio (PEG) of a stock to its growth rate (PEG). This ratio ranges from less than 1.0 for cyclical stocks to above 2.0 for businesses with sustainable growth. At the height of the technology stock boom, PEG ratios for some high profile technology stocks have exceeded 4.0 for some high profile technology stocks. The PEG ratio was used to justify and compare the high P/Es of the various Internet tech stocks and justify their lofty valuations. All these collapsed when the “Growth?leg of the valuation collapsed.

  Business composition:

  Be familiar with the key businesses that make up the company and their respective revenue and profit contributions. The other important aspect is to understand what businesses will contribute to the future growth of the company.

  Management Team:

  Is the management team doing a good job in enhancing shareholders?value? What is the management team’s performance on corporate governance? Will the same management team continue to be in place over the next 2 to 3 years to carry out the key initiatives? Is there a succession plan with identified candidates with proven record within the organization? Will the company continue to attract and train new talent?

  Differentiating factors:

  How different is this company compared to its peer group? What are some things that this company is able to do so well? What are the key differentiating factors? Some of the examples may include brand marketing, execution capability, creation of shareholders?value, etc.

  Price target and earning expectation:

  Typical, a 12-to-18-month price target is established when an analyst put a stock on his recommended list. The purpose is to allow investors to gauge the upside given a time frame. The price assumption always hinges on certain estimates, such as earnings expectations, earnings and turnover growth, margins expansion, market conditions, etc. The price is the final manifestation when things fall in place.

  Risk:

  No stock recommendation will carry much credibility if the risks associated with the investment were not highlighted and explained. The risk analysis examines some of the possible scenarios where the investment thesis may be derailed. In the previous example of Wal-Mart, the risk factors could be that the rollout of stores in the various cities in China may be delayed due to lease negotiation with provincial governments. The other example of risks may be that, given the less efficient transportation and distribution system in China, Wal-Mart may be unable to obtain further significant cost savings from inventory control for its operation there. Hence, the merchandiser may fail to meet its profitability forecast in the first quarter of 2003.

  In The Fixed Income Division

  If you are looking to join the fixed income division of a global financial institution, you should be familiar with the following key drivers of this massive US$36 trillion market.

  Be familiar with the various credit rating agencies such as Moody’s, Standard & Poor, and Fitch. The following are the ratings by Moody’s and it illustrates the investment and credit quality of the bonds.

  Aaa

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “Aaa?are judged to be of the best quality. They carry the smallest degree of investment risk and are generally referred to as “gilt edged? Interest payments are protected by a large or by an exceptionally stable margin and principal is secure. While the various protective elements are likely to change, such changes as can be visualized are most unlikely to impair the fundamentally strong position of such issues.

  Aa

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “Aa?are judged to be of high quality by all standards. Together with the “Aaa?group, they comprise what are generally known as high-grade bonds. They are rated lower than the best bonds because margins of protection may not be as large as in “Aaa?securities; or fluctuation of protective elements may be of greater amplitude; or there may be other elements present which make the long-term risk appear somewhat larger than the “Aaa?securities.

  A

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “A?possess many favorable investment attributes and are to be considered as upper-medium-grade obligations. Factors giving security to principal and interest are considered adequate, but elements may be present which suggest a susceptibility to impairment some time in the future.

  Baa

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “Baa?are considered as medium-grade obligations (i.e. they are neither highly protected nor poorly secured). Interest payments and principal security appear adequate for the present but certain protective elements may be lacking or may be characteristically unreliable over any great length of time. Such bonds lack outstanding investment characteristics and in fact have speculative characteristics as well.

  Ba

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “Ba?are judged to have speculative elements; their future cannot be considered as well-assured. Often the protection of interest and principal payments may be very moderate, and thereby not well safeguarded during both good and bad times over the future. Uncertainty of position characterizes bonds in this class.

  B

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “B?generally lack characteristics of the desirable investment. Assurance of interest and principal payments or maintenance of other terms of the contract over any long period of time may be small.

  Caa

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “Caa?are of poor standing. Such issues may be in default or there may exist present elements of danger with respect to principal or interest.

  Ca

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “Ca?represent obligations which are speculative in a high degree. Such issues are often in default or have other marked shortcomings.

  C

  Bonds and preferred stock which are rated “C?are the lowest rated class of bonds, and issues so rated can be regarded as having extremely poor prospects of ever attaining any real investment standing.

  Interest Rate Yield Curve

  The graphic representation of the various interest rates at the various tenors of a particular government bond market gives a snapshot of interest rate expectations over time. Changes in the yield curve over time are closely analyzed by market professionals.

  Following is an example of the US yield curve, shaped by US Treasuries. Note the following:

  1.The yield curve is shaped by very specific securities, whose yield is taken as a benchmark for that period.

  2.There are many outstanding 3 months bills as well as 30 year bonds, but only one specific one will be picked to be reflected on the yield curve.

  3.The US government has stopped issuing 30 year bonds, thus the main liquidity for a long term USD benchmark is taken over by the 10 year bond.

  4.When market participants mention that the yield curve has moved up or down, or the long end or short end of the curved has moved, it simply points to the changes in yield of the various benchmarks.

  U.S. Treasuries

  Tue., 13 Aug . 2002, 10:36pm EDT

  The yield curves of the other major economies are shaped by the government bonds of the respective countries, such as the JGBs of Japan, Gilts of United Kingdom, and Bunds of Germany.

  Interest Rate Movements

  The U.S. treasury yields are volatile (and correspondingly, the treasury prices), and this would in turn have an impact on the benchmark yield curve, and bonds that are priced off these benchmarks. The following two charts show the movement in yields of the U.S. 2 year and 5 year note over between 2001 and 2002.

  Credit Spreads

  Prices of corporate and emerging market bonds are quoted as spreads (interest differential) over relevant yield curve benchmarks in inter bank dealings. These spreads represent the additional yield over the benchmarks and reflect the additional investment risks the paper carry. The U.S. treasury benchmarks represent the lowest USD fixed income investment risk available to investors. Credit spreads will fluctuate and can be volatile, depending on the underlying fundamentals of the emerging economy or corporate. The greater the risks, the higher the yield, and correspondingly, the lower the price of the bond.

  The following two charts depict the spreads over treasuries of the Hanvit bond maturing in 2005. Note how the spreads moved in the period April 2001 to September 2002, from a high of 800 basis points in April 2001 to above treasuries to below 300 basis points above treasuries in September 2002. This move is caused by the improved outlook and fundamentals of the Hanvit credit and would have resulted in significant profits for the investor who invested in the Havit 2005 bond in April 2001, provided the USD benchmarks did not erode the gains.

  Korea: Korea vs Hanvit

  Note that investments in Fixed Income securities consist of 2 types of risk. I)Interest rate risks-affecting the overall underlying markets/benchmarks and II) Spread risks-specific to the investment itself, e.g. the Korean corporate Havit , that will move in accordance to the credit risk of the underlying. Returns on bond investment incorporates these two components of risks. Traders can trade away the underlying interest rate risks by hedging in the interest rate futures market. The table on the previous page is an example a Bond Investment Return Calculation, illustrating the tightening of spreads and with the benchmark interest rate remaining constant.

  Major Markets

  The G7 bond markets, e.g. U.S., Japan, accounts for the major flows of the fixed income markets. Outstanding fixed income issues as of year 2001 amounted to over US$36 trillion, and over 50% of these were issued by sovereigns or agencies sponsored by them. The bulk were domestic issues, catering to the savings and investment requirements of the local markets. Turnover of USD treasuries amount to over US$20 billion daily.

  Emerging Markets

  Be aware of some of the key characteristics of these markets and credit events in recent times, E.g. what happened in Argentina and Brazil in 2002. Although this market often grabs the news headlines, it is relatively small compared to the major G7 government bond markets.

  Risk Management

  Have an idea how bond portfolio managers and traders manage their interest rate risks. The interest rate futures contracts, such as the Eurodollar futures or forward contracts, are the key instruments used by professionals to hedge interest rate risks. Market players also utilize derivative instruments to hedge risks.

  What Are The Key Trends In The Global Bond Markets Currently

  The markets are seeing a rising trend of securities being issued by private companies, a result of the disintermediation between the banks and corporate borrowers. With the exception of Japan, due to surpluses run up by the major economies, they are also issuing less public debt securities.

  In The Foreign Exchange Division

  If you are looking to join the foreign exchange division of a global financial institution, you should be familiar with the following key drivers, basic transaction mechanics, and market conventions of this market.

  Before that, here is a list of major currencies traded in the global foreign exchange(FX) markets and their corresponding codes:

  FX rates are expressed in terms of one currency’s value relative to another. One Chinese Yuan is one Chinese Yuan, but its real value is when it is expressed relative to another currency. In the global FX markets, this has invariably been the U.S. Dollars(USD), but the EURO(EUR) has also emerged as a major reference currency, as statistics compiled by Bank for International Settlements(BIS) shows.

  As mentioned earlier, currencies are quoted relative to each other, thus, they are quoted in pairs. The convention for the currency market is for currency pairs to be quoted with reference to currencies such as U.S. Dollars(USD), Euro(EUR), Sterling Pound(GPB), and Australian Dollar(AUD). As the US economy dominates the world, and most global trade is carried out in USD, the USD reference currency trades account for half of the Foreign Exchange Markets transactions. The EUR and JPY reference trades formed the two other significant blocks, according to the folloeing numbers from BIS in the previous table. The EUR is growing in importance as a reference currency and in the FX dealing convention, all other major currencies are quoted against it. So in the case of USD versus EUR, it is quoted as EUR/USD by the inter-bank markets, i.e. how much amount of USD needed to buy 1 EUR. In addition to convention, transactions in the FX markets are quoted in a certain format. The following are illustrations of the major currency pairs:

  USD and EUR Currency Pairs-Market Quote Convention

  The FX rate of any particular country is always a key concern of the finance officials and businesses of the respective countries. When investors evaluate any investment proposals, the stability and strength of the investment currency is of key importance. The ability to hedge this exposure is critical. Businesses want to be competitive and a lower FX rate does help. But central banks have to contend with imported inflation, maintaining growth, amongst other considerations, thus their FX strategy will be more complex as the FX rate is only one component of their monetary policy equation.

  There are times when events are beyond the capacity and ability of the central banks to control. The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 forced the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand to weaken significantly, and the central banks of the respective countries were not in a position to counter the massive capital flows against it; thus, their respective currencies were effectively devalued. Singapore, which was in a strong fiscal position, also saw its currency weaken significantly due to her proximity to the weaker neighbors. The following table illustrates the magnitude of the loss in numbers:

  There are numerous factors that affect the strength of one country’s currency against another. The following are some frequently mentioned factors:

  Economic growth or weakness. A strong economy relative to another would typically result in a relatively stronger currency. The U.S. is the world’s biggest economy and the focus of the market is typically on the strength of the USD (or U.S. economy) versus the rest of the world’s currencies.

  Global capital flows. The relative strength of an economy would typically result in attracting investment capital flows. For instance, the strength of the USD from 1995 to 2001 is highly correlated to the strong performance of USD financial assets and US economy.

  Speculators, traders and sentiments contribute significantly to the volatility of the FX markets. In the well known case of the GBP peg in 1992, the major players in the FX market actually challenged the Bank of England, no less, and forced a devaluation of the GBP, making billions in the process. At the end of August 1992, the “Quantum Fund?led by George Soros shorted USD 7 billion worth of pound sterling and bought Deutsche Mark worth USD 6 billion. The sterling was under tremendous pressure and subsequently devalued in spite of interventions by the Bank of England. Finally, the British government was forced to quit the Exchange Rate Mechanism of European Community (ERM). George Soros gained his global fame and known as “The Man Who Broke the Bank of England”and “The Man Who Earned 1.5 Billion Dollars within A Week?

正确理解一些主要交易的实际情况和交易方法

  正确理解一些主要交易的实际情况和交易方法

  公司财务管理

  如果你想在公司财务管理方面寻找一个助理(associate)的职位,你可能需要花大量的时间深入地研究一些经典的合并与收购的案例以及最新的并购案例。你需要特别掌握的是:公司收购的根本目的是什么?如果可行的话,你应努力发现为什么被收购的公司愿意被出售。估价的基础能让投资者、金融从业者、企业人员、公司雇员和几乎所有的人都感兴趣。哪些是投资研究员和金融专栏(著名的金融报纸和杂志如《华尔街日报》、《金融时报》、《福布斯》、《巴伦周刊》等)经常引用的估价参数?关于收购交易的争论(如果有的话)有哪些?

  你应该掌握收购者应用的金融方式。这些方法经常涉及到现金运用、银行贷款、通过销售资产进行融资、私人股权投资、发行股票和/或发行债券或综合上述的项目。请注意收购前后的现金结构以及公司怎样组织现金流偿付账款。

  一般而言,合并收购后重组的公司经常进行一系列削减开支的方法,使公司运作和资产出售更流畅。

  股权资本市场业

  如果你在寻找一个在股权资本市场的职位,你应该关注重要的首次公开发行。你需要特别掌握的知识是:评估、行业可比因素、认购方式、定价方法、承销团队的组织形式、投资者的类型、市场感知和上市后的表现。

  评估:在该次首次公开发行中使用了什么评估工具,例如:市盈率、企业价值与利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利的比率、市值与账面价值比、市盈率与持续增长率比、价格销售比率,等等。

  接受订单:在这种交易中采用什么方法呢?可以采用美式风格的路演询价圈购、先来先服务、投标式等方法。有些时候接受订单的方法必然是与定价相连的。其他一些交易涉及到国有企业的私有化,这需要一些特殊的安排,将一部分股票以较优惠的价格出售给广大的公众市民投资者。

  承销团队的组织形式:谁是主承销商?和副承销商?如这是一个国际发行,谁是全球协调人?

  股市证券营销部

  如果你想在证券销售领域求职,就要对两三个处于不同领域的、你最感兴趣的公司进行研究,有把握地讨论下面几个有足够深度的话题:

  投资主题

  任何一个公司投资推荐都一定要有一个投资主题。投资主题是一个核心要点,说明了一个公司作为一项投资的价值。它着重突出可以帮助该公司达到财务目标的商业竞争优势和因素。

  例如:

  沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)是一个管理有序的超大型商场。尽管美国处于低通货膨胀经济萧条的时期,但是沃尔玛在未来3年年均利润增长率预计仍然可以达到8%—10%。通过持续不断地改进它的库存管理程序,以及在中国和东南亚地区实施采购大大节约了成本,沃尔玛的盈利增长率超过了同行业的水平。大型的美式超市在中国的首次亮相是因为中国政府对外资参与的超大型商场放松了管制。预计到2003年第一季度,沃尔玛将在中国有不俗的销售成绩。沃尔玛的市盈率/成长率比值处于其历史记录2.2-1.6的中间点,这为成长型投资者(以求获得较大的资本利得)提供了大量的机会,甚至吸引了价值型投资者(价格低廉,高分红派现)。

  评估

  ·相关的评估工具

  投资研究分析的专家们根据不同行业开发了不同的评估工具。这些工具是必要的:资本密集型(capital-intensive)行业,例如资本性产品生产商,经常会遇到大额折旧问题。其他的行业,可能资本资产比较少,但是研发的开支很高,例如软件公司。即使处于同一行业同一领域,不同的公司为了使业务持续增长也会采取不同的战略计划。例如:有些公司很少进行收购而是依赖于其自身的组织性成长,然而它们同行业的竞争对手可能采用充满进攻性但有纪律性的收购战略来获得企业的发展。后者将获得高额的商誉摊销(goodwill amortization)。因此,选择合适的评估工具对正确评价不同行业的各种公司至关重要。

  以上所列的两个表格说明了如何使用对照的方法来评估属于同一行业或属于同一产业的公司的方式。通过使用各种评估手段,公司的成长、收益、回报、生产率、价值和红利被全面评估。

  上述分析表格可以帮助投资专家在投资时作出准确的决策。假设投资委员会要在一个特别不稳定的市场上选择相对稳定的因素后,决定在消费品、化妆品以及家用产品方面进行进一步的大盘股的投资,我们来看看作出这样的决策的典型步骤:

  哪些股票仍然呈现良好的相对价值?通过上面的两个表格,你可以很容易看出这三个公司——金佰利、宝洁和英国联合利华公司呈现良好态势。它们三家能够脱颖而出是因为它们的主要相对价值衡量指标——市盈率、市价与现金盈利的比率、市盈率/成长率比值以及企业价值与利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利比明显低于同行。

  然后可以将重点定位在盈利预测基本因素上。在2001财政年度,英国联合利华公司以25%的强劲盈利增长势头而表现出众。

  但是如果投资者更偏重于股利偿付的话,就会发现这支股票并非如此具有吸引力,因为它的股利和股息收益率明显地低于同行。

  因此,如果股息不是主要关注点,可以在此阶段选择英国联合利华的股票。但是在作出任何决定之前,还有很多问题需要回答:

  上列表格中列出的数字到底有多少可信度?表格中所提供的数字分析是否过于乐观、是否与市场预测和市场共识相差甚远?如果该股票的预计增长并未发生的话,你必须对此作出一系列的分析,评估股票走势下降的风险。

  风险因素有哪些,宏观方面的?行业角度的?公司具体业务的层面?哪些因素可以导致公司的基本面恶化?英国联合利华的基本面所显示出来的风险是否更显著、更表面化?各种不同公司的边际利润各是多少?对这些重要的评价部分具有消极影响的风险因素是什么?该公司的资产负债表如何,例如:债务股权比相对于同行业其他公司或全产业的情况如何?未来利息率的变化对资产负债表和经营水平/盈利水平的影响有多大?

  在强劲的盈利增长率后面,基本的驱动因素是什么?这些假设现实吗?

  为了对公司的优势及战略地位有个全面的认识,将公司的各项指标与同行及全行业进行比较是一个恰当的起点。然而,在作出投资决策之前,还应对公司的特有因素进行深入分析。例如:业务构成、管理团队、差异化特质、价格目标和盈利预期、风险等——后文将具体论述。

  相对增长潜力:除了上面给出的那些评估参数以外,下面是另外一个有用的评估参数。这个比率是市盈率/每股盈利增长率(PEG),即股票的市盈率与每股盈利增长率的比值。这个比值的范围从低于1.0的周期性股票到高于2.0的持续增长股。在科技股最繁荣的时候,一些高科技股的PEG值曾经超过4.0。PEG值被用来牵强地证明互联网科技股票的虚增价值与高市盈率的合理性。当所预测的盈利增长率没有如期实现时,这些前所未有的溢价都大幅度的下跌了。

  业务构成:应该了解一个公司的主要业务构成以及各业务部门的营业额和利润贡献。需要了解的另外一个重要方面是:哪些业务对公司将来的营业增长有所贡献。

  管理团队:管理团队所做的工作是否提高了股东价值?在公司治理方面,管理团队做了哪些工作?在2—3年后,同一个管理团队是否仍然执行公司主要的能动战略?在机构内部,是否有培养接班人的全面计划?公司是否一直坚持吸引和培训优秀的人才?

  差异化特质:与同一行业的其他公司相比,这家公司的独到之处在哪里?这家公司最擅长的方面有哪些?这家公司最主要的差异化特质是什么?举一些涉及品牌营销、执行能力和股东价值创造等方面的案例。

  价格目标和盈利预期:通常,当股票分析师将一个股票列入他的推荐名单中时,一个12—18个月的价格目标也随之建立起来。建立价格目标的目的是让投资者在给定的一个时间段中能够衡量股票的上升空间。预先的定价往往建立在某些预测上,因为当所有的因素(如预期盈利、收益与营业额增长、利润增长、市场环境等因素)都确定下来后,价格将是这些因素的最终体现。

  风险:没有明确指出并详细解释投资所涉及的风险,这样的股票推荐不足以使人信服。风险分析可以分析当投资发生偏离时,可能出现的一些情况。如前文所述的沃尔玛的实例,它的投资风险因素就是:由于和中国的一些省级政府洽谈租约而无法达成一致,可能导致沃尔玛在中国一些城市的首次亮相时间有所推迟。另外一个风险因素是:由于中国的运输和物流系统的低效率,沃尔玛先进的库存控制系统不能在中国顺利运转,从而不能显著地节约成本。这样可能达不到其在2003年第一季度的盈利预报中所预测的数字。

  债券业

  如果你想加入某个国际金融机构的债券部,你应该熟悉影响这共计36万亿美金的庞大金融市场的一些决定性因素。

  有各种各样的债券评级公司评估金融市场的债券。你应该熟悉以下几家国际著名的信用评级公司:穆迪(Moody’s)、标准普尔(Standard & Poor)和惠誉国际信用评级有限公司(Fitch)。下表是穆迪公司对债券的投资信用等级的评估指标。

  债券评级公司——穆迪公司对债券投资信用等级评估

  Aaa

  评为Aaa级的债券品质最佳、投资风险最小,一般称为“金边”(gilt edged)债券。利息有充裕或非常稳定的安全边际保障,同时债券本金亦最安全。各种保护条件固然可能改变,但推测其变动不大,不可能损害此类债券的基本优良地位。

  Aa

  评为Aa级的债券表示根据各种标准评判,其品质优良。Aa级与Aaa级债券通称为高品质债券。其被评为较最佳等级低,是因为保障边际(margins of protection)不如Aaa级充足,或保障因素的波动可能较大,或可能呈现其他因素,使长期风险较Aaa级债券稍高。

  A

  评为A级的债券,具有多项有利于投资的性质,被认定为中上水准的债券,有足够的因素可保障本金与利息,但亦有因素显示,在未来时间可能遭受损害。

  Baa

  评为Baa级的债券,被认为具有中等信用品质(未受高度的保障,但亦非不良)。目前,看来仍足以支付利息与保障本金,但是若干保持因素可能缺乏,或经长时间以后,可能无法信赖。此类债券缺乏显著的投资性,事实上,具有若干投机性质。

  Ba

  评为Ba级的债券,被认为具有投机要素,债券的未来不能令人放心。通常,对利息与本金的保障不大,因此,无论未来景气好坏,均无法收到良好的保护。地位不确定是这一级债券的特征。

  B

  评为B级的债券,一般缺乏有利的投资特质。就长期而言,利息与本金的清偿或其他契约条件的履行均甚难确保。

  Caa

  评为Caa级的债券属于较差的债券,可能处于违约的状态,或显现出将危害本金与利息之因素。

  Ca

  评为Ca级的债券,具有高度的投机性,此债券通常处于违约状态,或有其他重大的缺点。

  C

  评为C级的债券是评等最差的债券,其未来可获得任何实质投资价值的希望极为渺茫。

  收益率曲线

  收益率曲线表示在某一瞬间,市场对不同期限国债的利息率的期望。市场专家密切地关注和分析过去一段时间的收益率曲线。

  下面是由美国国债生成的收益率曲线。请注意下列几点:

  1.收益率曲线仅由有限的几种债券形成,它们的收益率曲线只代表了当时那个时间段的衡量基准。

  2.还有许多未偿付的3个月的票据以及一些30年的长期债券,但是收益率曲线上仅选用了一个债券作为代表。

  3.美国政府已经停止发行30年长期债券,因此美元长期债券基准的主导地位将被10年债券取代。

  4.当市场参与者提到收益率曲线的升或者降,或者曲线的长端或者短端有所移动的时候,主要指的是各个基准(benchmarks)的收益率在变化。

  美国的国债

  2002年8月13日,星期二,东部时间晚10:36

  不同国家的政府发行的不同国债形成了不同的收益率曲线。例如:日本政府长期国债、英国金边债券和德国国家债券。

  利息率的变化

  美国国债收益率曲线有颇大的波动幅度(与此相对应,国债的价格也经常发生变化),而且这将反过来作用于基准收益率曲线(benchmarks yield curve)。此外,债券的价格也是以收益率曲线作为标准的。下面两个图表显示了在2001至2002年度的某个时段中,2年期国债与5年期国债的收益率曲线的变化情况。

  信用差额

  在银行与机构投资者的交易盘市场,公司发行的债券和新兴市场债券(emerging market bonds)的报价是基于相关收益率曲线基准的利差(spreads/interest differential)。这些利差代表了在基准之外附加的收益率,反映了额外的投资风险。美国国债基准(US treasury benchmarks)是指投资者在固定收入债券投资方面所经受的最低风险。债券信用差额将上下波动而且可能不稳定,这要看一些新兴经济体或新兴公司的基本面状况(underlying fundamentals)如何。

  下面两个表描述了韩汇银行 2005年到期债券的利差。请注意利差在2001年4月至2002年9月间是如何变化的:从2001年4月高于国债800个基点的利差到2002年9月高于国债将近300个基点的利差。这种利差的变化是由于韩汇银行提高了其企业业绩的前景预测和改进了基本面的措施(improved outlook and fundamentals)所致,在美元不贬值的前提下,在2001年4月投资韩汇银行2005年到期债券的投资者获得了相当可观的利润。

  Korea: Korea vs Hanvit

  请注意债券投资包括两种类型的风险:1)利率风险——影响整个市场(underlying markets)和基准利率;2)利差风险——具体到投资本身,例如韩汇银行,利差风险是根据信用风险而变化的。债券投资回报结合了以上两种风险。债券交易商可以在利率期货市场上(interest rate futures market)通过对冲(hedging)规避利率风险。前面的表格是一个债券投资回报计算(Bond Investment Return Calculation)实例:利息率的基准保持不变的前提下,分析了利差缩小的状况。

  主要债券市场

  七大工业国的债券市场(G7 bond markets),例如:美国的债券市场和,日本的债券市场,就占据了国际债券市场流通的主要部分。2001年,它们发行的未清偿债券达到360兆美元,其中超过50%的部分是由国家或是它们的代理机构发行的。此外,绝大多数的债券是在国内发行的,主要是为了满足当地市场的储蓄和投资需求。美国债券市场的日成交量达到美元2000亿。

  新兴的市场

  新兴市场的主要特征有哪些?最近一段时间新兴市场发生了哪些信用风波?例如:2002年在阿根廷和巴西发生了什么事情?尽管新兴市场往往占据了财经新闻头条,但是比起七大工业国的债券市场,它们的业务量只占了相对较小的一部分。

  风险管理

  你知道债券基金经理和债券交易商是如何管理利率风险的吗?他们通过运用利率远期契约,例如欧洲美元期货或远期契约(Eurodollar Futures or Forward Contracts)作为风险规避(hedging)的有效金融工具。至于在市场上具体操作的行家,他们也通过使用金融衍生工具来规避风险。

  全球债券市场近来的趋势怎样

  最近全球债券市场上私营公司发行债券的势头趋于看涨,这是因为银行和公司借款者(corporate borrowers)之间产生“脱媒现象”(disintermediation)或者叫“逆中介化现象”(即指资金需要者采取发行证券而不是采取向金融机构借款的方式筹措资金)。日本是个例外,但是由于主要经济的资金积累过剩日本政府也发行较少数量的公共债券(public debt securities)。

  外汇交易业

  如果你想加入国际金融机构的外汇交易市场(global foreign exchange)业务部门,你应该熟悉以下的重要推动因素、基本交易方法以及外汇市场的操作惯例。

  正式介绍这部分之前,笔者用下面这个表格列出了国际外汇交易市场中的主要交易货币和它们的交易代码:

  外币交易的汇率是以一种货币与另一货币的相对价值来表现的。1元的人民币就是1元的人民币,而它的真正价值只有当它被另一种货币的价值表达时才得以体现。国际清算银行(BIS,Bank of International Settlement)的统计显示:在国际金融市场,美元一直作为其他货币的参照货币,而欧元作为另外一种参照货币也在逐渐崛起。

  从上表可以看出,货币之间的价格都是相互关联的,它们总是以成对的方式出现。外汇市场的惯例是组合货币中的一方必须是参照货币,例如美元、欧元、英镑和澳大利亚元。由于美国经济在世界上处于主导地位,而且大多数世界贸易是以美金结算,因此,在全球外汇市场以美元作为参照货币的交易占总交易量的一半。根据上表BIS统计的数字,欧元和日元的交易量占据了第二和第三的位置。随着欧元作为参照货币的交易量在外汇市场的逐渐增长,其他主要货币也与欧元汇兑报价。当美元与欧元组合时,银行间同业拆借市场(inter-bank market)的报价是欧元/美元(EUR/USD)。例如:用多少美元可以买1欧元?除了惯例之外,外汇交易市场的每笔交易都遵循这样的特定模式。以下是一些主要货币的组合方式:

  美元和欧元的组合方式——市场报价惯例

  任何一个国家的外汇汇率不仅是财政官员关注的重点,也是每个国家经济的重点。当投资者评估投资建议时,投资货币是否稳定、是否处于升值状况是他们关注的焦点,而规避交易风险的能力对他们而言至关重要。企业希望自己的产品更具有竞争力,更低的汇率一定会对其有所帮助。但是中央银行不得不关注进口型通货膨胀(因国外的通货膨胀使得进口商品的价格上升,造成国内物价不断上升的情况)经济持续增长和其他方面的问题。因此他们的外汇政策将更加复杂,因为外汇汇率仅仅是他们货币政策的一个组成部分而已。

  曾经也发生过一些超出了中央银行能力控制范围的事件。1997年发生的亚洲金融危机(Asian Financial Crisis)使印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国的货币急剧贬值,这几个国家的中央银行不能应付巨大的资本流动(capital flows),它们的货币因此都相应地贬值了。新加坡当时虽然经济实力很强,但是由于受到邻国货币贬值的影响,新加坡币也未能幸免。

  有很多方面的因素影响一个国家对其他国家的货币的强弱。以下是一些常见的因素:

  ·经济增长或衰落。一个相对坚挺的货币需要依托于一个相对较强的经济。美国拥有世界最强势的经济力量,其市场关注重点是美元(或美国经济)相对于世界其他国家的货币(或经济)的强弱。

  ·全球资本流动。经济是否强大是指该国是否可以吸引投资资本的流入。1995年至2001年间,美元的强势和美国充足的金融资产(financial assets)和美国强大的经济实力息息相关。

  ·投机者、交易商和市场信心(sentiments)对外汇交易市场的波动影响巨大。大家所熟知的1992年英镑钉住汇率制事件中,外汇交易市场的操盘手实际上已经挑战了英国央行(Bank of England),不仅如此,他们甚至迫使英镑贬值并从中获利达数十亿英镑。(乔治·索罗斯领导的“量子基金”在1992年8月底,短期内作空卖出了70亿美元的英镑,购进了60亿美元的德国马克。结果,尽管英格兰银行不顾一切地买进,英镑还是狂跌了,这迫使英国政府撤出了欧共体的汇率机制。这么一来,索罗斯突然有了国际声望,被称为“击败了英格兰央行的人”和“一周内挣了15亿美元的人”。)




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