As Chinese experts are discussing how to halt this vicious cycle, foreign tobacco giants are considering how to get a share of a market with 350 million smokers consuming 1.8 trillion cigarettes a year.

　　The British American Tobacco (BAT) company announced in July 2004 a deal with the Chinese government to collaborate with China Eastern Investments for a US$1.5 billion joint venture to produce and sell cigarettes in China. The joint venture would have been the first foreign tobacco firm in China and probably the country's largest cigarette producer, with an annual capacity of 100 billion cigarettes.

　　The deal, however, fell through. This was the third time that BAT announced the joint venture, but the outcome was the same: China denied approval. Perhaps BAT overestimated its relationship with some high officials and local tobacco industries, cultivated over 20 years in an attempt to enter the Chinese market. Perhaps it didn't realize that a new, unprecedented anti-tobacco trend, embodied by China's membership in the FCTC, may be brewing in the country.

　　Timeline of recent tobacco control measures abroad

　　2000

　　Smoking is prohibited on all US international flights

　　2001

　　Smoking in public places is forbidden countrywide by India's Supreme Court.

　　2002

　　Thailand bans indoor smoking.

　　2003

　　New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg successfully champions a ban on smoking in the city's restaurants and bars. One year later, studies show the ban produced no detrimental financial effect on these establishments.

　　2004

　　Smoking is prohibited on the beaches of Sydney, making the Australian capital only the second city (after Los Angeles), to do so.

　　England announces a ban on smoking in workplaces, restaurants, and pubs serving food.

　　Ireland bans smoking in all public places.

　　2005

　　Italy enforces its ban on smoking in public places, fining restaurateurs 2000 euros and revoking their licenses for failing to comply. Smokers themselves face fines of 27.50-275 euros.

　　Canada's Supreme Court makes possible the countrywide implementation of tobacco control legislation passed in the country's Saskatchewan province. Under Saskatchewan law, retailers must not display cigarettes for sale. Many retailers chose to keep their cigarettes hidden behind curtains.

　　Commotion over tobacco promotion

　　In dealing with how to make a hazardous product attractive and with limited legal channels for advertisement, tobacco manufacturers have produced some of the most creative (and effective) promotion campaigns in recent memory. The cowboy image (the "Marlboro Man"), used by Philip Morris is considered the classic case of the last half century. The tough, weathered cowboys, symbolizing virility, adventure, and individuality captured millions of youths' fancies and turned them into rookie smokers.

　　China has not allowed tobacco advertising on television, radio or in newspapers and magazines since 1992, when the country's first tobacco control law came into effect. However, Chinese tobacco businessmen quickly learned from the western tobacco giants, spending all they could on building a public image for their enterprise and circumventing the rules of the government.

　　On August 28, 2004, 21-year-old Liu Xiang thrilled people across the country when he clocked a world record 12.91 seconds to win the 110-meter hurdles in Athens Olympic Games. The accomplishment resulted in more than a gold medal; it challenged the national perception that the Chinese can't sprint well as a result of "genetic shortcomings."

　　There was one man who was even more excited: Lu Ping, president of China's largest cigarette company, Baisha. When Lu saw the image of Liu Xiang, arms flung outward in the sprint for the finish line, he saw the image of a flying crane, the well-known Baisha logo.

　　The Baisha Culture and Communication Company, a branch of Baisha Corporation, managed to sign an official sponsorship with the State Physical Cultural Administration, which Liu belongs to, twenty days later. Beginning in October that year, an advertisement was broadcast on several China Central Television and Beijing Television channels. The ad, featuring Liu Xiang sprinting with several cranes flying behind him, ended with a voiceover saying, "My heart is flying," a company slogan. It was considered a brilliant creation, a Chinese equivalent of the Marlboro Man.

　　"Everyone likes Liu Xiang and hopes he will soar higher and faster and maintain his sunny, healthy, progressive image," boasted Lu.

　　For many years, tobacco companies had attempted to market their brands through their culture and communications branches, thus circumventing the advertising ban. But with the Liu Xiang ad, things had gone too far. The notion of "Olympic champion sells cigarettes" made the fur fly. Debates on the Internet became fierce. Many people thought the ads hurt the public image of their hero. The ad also struck a jarring note during the period when China was in the process of ratifying the FCTC treaty. In January 2005, the Baisha ads featuring Liu were banned by the Beijing Municipal Administration for Industry and Commerce for advertising cigarettes.

　　China's entrance and imminent ratification of the FCTC will lead to even tougher restrictions on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship. To tobacco manufacturers, this presents a major problem, as they will no longer have the means to push their products, especially to the young. Without the ability to recruit more lifelong smokers from the ranks of younger generations, the tobacco industry faces a decline, just as a population with sinking birth rates will eventually dwindle.

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