China has been building the equivalent of almost one university per week.
中国基本每周新建一所大学。
It is part of a silent revolution that is causing a huge shift in the composition of the world’s population of graduates.
这是一场悄无声息的变革的一部分，它将引发全球大学生组成的重大改变。
For decades, the United States had the highest proportion of people going to university. They dominated the graduate market.
数十年来，美国读大学人数比例一直居于全球首位，他们一直控制着大学生市场。
Reflecting this former supremacy, among 55 to 64 year olds almost a third of all graduates in the world’s major economies are US citizens.
美国之前在该领域一直处于领先地位。世界经济大国55至64岁的人群中，几乎三分之一的大学毕业生都是美国公民。
But that is changing rapidly among younger generations. In terms of producing graduates, China has overtaken the United States and the combined university systems of European Union countries.
但这种现象在年轻一代人中正迅速发生改变。在输出大学生方面，中国已赶超美国和欧盟国家联合大学体系。
The gap is going to become even wider. Even modest predictions see the number of 25 to 34-year-old graduates in China rising by a further 300% by 2030, compared with an increase of around 30% expected in Europe and the United States.
而且这中间的差距正在逐步扩大。据保守估计，到2030年，中国25-34岁大学生人数将上涨300%，而欧洲和美国预计增长30%。
In the United States, students have been struggling to afford university costs. In Europe, most countries have put a brake on expanding their universities by either not making public investments or not allowing universities to raise money themselves.
美国大学生要努力攒够大学费用。欧洲大多数国家制止大学扩张，不允许进行公共投资，也不允许大学擅自提高学费。
But if the West has been sleeping, China and other Asian countries such as India have raced ahead.
然而，西方国家一旦松懈，中国和其他亚洲国家（如印度）就会竞相追赶。
It isn’t simply about bigger student numbers. Students in China and India are much more likely to study mathematics, sciences, computing and engineering - the subjects most relevant to innovation and technological advance.
这不仅仅意味着学生数量的增多。中国和印度大学生更乐于学数学、科学、计算机和工程学-而这些学科是同创新以及技术进步最为密切相关的。
In 2013, 40% of Chinese graduates completed their studies in a Stem (science, technology, engineering and maths) subject - more than twice the share of US graduates.
2013年，40%的中国大学生完成主修课程（科学，技术，工程和数学）-是美国大学生比例的2倍多。
So the graduates who are the cornerstone of economic prosperity in knowledge-based economies are increasingly disproportionately likely to come from China and India.
因此，在知识经济时代，经济繁荣的基础是这些大学生，而他们正越来越多地来自中国和印度，已经达到比例失衡。
By 2030, China and India could account for more than 60% of the Stem graduates in major economies, compared with only 8% in Europe and 4% in the United States.
到2013年，经济大国中主修课程大学毕业生中将有60%以上来自中国和印度，只有8%来自欧洲，来自美国的将只占4%。
Countries like China and India are betting on the future with this.
像中国和印度这样的国家把未来押在了这上面。
With such an increase in people in higher education, conventional wisdom might assume that the value of qualifications would suffer from "inflation".
随着受高等教育人数的增多，传统观点认为它对应的价值可能会面临“通货膨胀”。
But this is not happening. In the OECD countries with the biggest increases in graduate numbers, most continue to see rising earnings.
但事实并非如此。经济合作与发展组织国家大学生增速最快，而且大多仍继续保持收益的稳步增长。
This suggests that an increase in "knowledge workers" does not lead to a decline in their pay, unlike the way that technological advancement and globalisation have pushed down the earnings of poorly-educated workers.
这意味着，“知识工作者”增多并不会导致薪水下降，不像受教育程度低的工人，他们的薪水会由于技术进步和经济全球化而降低。
In the past, OECD countries competed mostly with countries that offered low-skilled work at low wages.
过去，经济合作与发展组织国家的主要竞争是其他国家提供的低薪低技能工作。
Today, countries like China and India are starting to deliver high skills at moderate cost.
现在，像中国和印度这样的国家开始以合理的价格提供高技术。
The West cannot compete by keeping the rest of the world out of their economic systems. There are plenty of examples of European countries that have stagnated over the past century by trying to do just that.
西方国家不可能把世界其他国家排除在他们的经济体系之外来进行竞争。欧洲国家有很多案例表明，试图这样做将会造成一个世纪的经济停滞。
The massive investment in education in Asia suggests competition through lower production costs may be merely a transitional strategy for countries on their way to meeting the Western world at the top of the product range.
亚洲对教育的大规模投资表明，对于在顶尖产品领域迈向与西方国家同步的国家而言，通过低生产成本竞争仅仅只是一个过渡性战略。
The real challenge for Western countries is to prepare for future competition with Asian economies in the knowledge sector.
西方国家面临的真正挑战，是未来在知识领域与亚洲经济体的竞争。
Some raise doubts about the quality and relevance of the degrees earned in China.
有些人对在中国取得的学历质量和适用性提出质疑。
Indeed, there are still no direct measures that allow for a comparison of the learning outcomes of graduates across countries and universities.
实际上，至今仍没有能够直接比较不同国家和大学的学习成果的方法。
But China has shown the world that it is possible to simultaneously raise quantity and quality in schools.
但中国已经向世界表明，同时实现学校在质和量上的增长并非不可能。
In the latest round of the OECD Pisa tests, the 10% most disadvantaged 15-year-olds in Shanghai scored higher in mathematics than the 10% most privileged 15-year-olds in the United States.
在最近一轮国际学生评量方案测试中，来自上海的10%处于最弱势群体的15岁少年相较于来自美国的10%处于最优越地位的15岁少年，得分较高。
Perhaps tellingly, objections to the OECD’s proposal for international comparisons between institutions of higher education did not come from Asia, but from countries like the United Kingdom and the United States.
很显然，对OECD组织提议的对高等教育机构的国际比较，反对声不是来自亚洲，而是来自英国和美国这样的国家。
Did they fear that their universities might not live up to their past reputations?
他们是否担心他们的大学与过去相比名不符实呢？
China’s rapid expansion in higher education shows the scale of the challenge for the West and shows the future might be indifferent to tradition and past reputations. It might be unforgiving of frailty and largely ignorant of assumptions about custom or practice.
中国高等教育的迅速扩大表明，西方国家面临的挑战日益增加，未来并不关心传统和过去的名誉。弱小或者忽略习惯与惯例的假定都是难以原谅的。
Success will go to those individuals, universities and countries that are swift to adapt, slow to complain and open to change. The task for governments will be to ensure that their countries rise to these challenges.
成功将属于那些迅速适应、不抱怨、乐于改变的个人、大学和国家。政府的任务是确保国家能够应对这些挑战。
