By David Newland

　　国华 树春 译注

　　今后几十年汽车会变成什么样子？燃料电池车或无人驾驶车会普及吗？自动路又是怎么一回事？这篇文章将为你提供答案。

　　It's not technology that will determine the shape<注1> of land transport so much as<注2> political, economic and environmental considerations. We can build stronger, quieter roads with better skid-resistance<注3> now, but we don't because of the cost.<注4> We could halve<注5> traffic noise by putting noise barriers<注6> along motorways<注7> and designing lorries<注8> with less exhaust and tyre noise, <注9> but we won't<注10> pay the bill.<注11>

　　The environmental lobby<注12> has had a huge impact on car manufacturers and emission<注13> control has improved<注14> a lot. But there's still some way to go<注15> on the air pollution front, <注16> particularly for<注17> lorries which run on diesel fuel, <注18> which is bad<注19> because of its particulate emissions<注20>—the soot particles emitted when it is burnt.

　　Cars and lorries could be driven by<注21> electric motors if fuel-cells, which convert fuel into electricity without burning it, can be made more efficient. However, they've been touted<注22> now for a generation and have never really met expectations. <注23> American domination<注24> of the automotive industry<注25> makes rapid progress unlikely. Because the cost of gasoline is so low in the States, <注26> there's not much incentive to develop fuel-cells and electric vehicles for widespread use.

　　When it comes to<注27> communication, <注28> we already have Trafficmaster, <注29> which operates from transducers<注30> on motorway bridges to gauge<注31> the speed of the traffic and warn of<注32> blockages<注33> ahead. We also have global navigation satellites<注34> that can pinpoint your position. The challenge<注35> is to provide a full driver-guidance system that can tell you the best direction<注36> to go in a way you can absorb<注37> at the wheel. <注38>

　　Otherwise, <注39> the next big step<注40> in transport technology will be automated roads: regulating<注41> vehicles in convoys on motorways so that they're safer and can be packed closer<注42> together. Sensors would establish<注43> what is around each vehicle<注44> and electronic control systems would keep them moving in the right direction, at the right safe speed, with maximum comfort and economy. The technology is massively<注45> expensive now, but eventually it will become a reality. You would just pay a toll, <注46> couple your car into an electronic convoy<注47> and sit back<注48> to enjoy the journey.

　　Motorways will gradually become more like railways, with freight vehicles electronically coupled in trains running at relatively high speeds. At suitable intervals, they would uncouple<注49> to travel the remainder of the journey with their own driver. <注50> That's almost certainly going to happen. It would make better use of the roads and be safer, cheaper and greener, <注51> as well as making driving more pleasant for everyone. In Adelaide<注52> there are already buses that run on an automated route for part of their journey. <注53>

　　That sort of combination of personal and centralized control is the direction we're going<注54> in road transport, probably first of all for freight. <注55> Any rail system has in the end<注56> to be inflexible, <注57> it doesn't go<注58> where you<注59> want, especially in rural communities, where the nearest station can be 30 miles away. We're wedded to<注60> private cars, because of their flexibility and the pride people take in ownership<注61>—not to mention the huge sums we've spent on the road network.

　　So cars aren't going to go away. <注62> But under electronic control they will become greener and safer. In 50 years time driving your own car on a fast motorway, mixed up with lorries, and passing at a closing speed<注63> of 150mph within a few metres of people driving other vehicles in the opposite direction<注64> will seem complete insanity! <注65>-

　　(From CAM: Cambridge Alumni Magazine, No.28,1999)