Y: Hello, welcome to our programme. We know you are an expert on China, what would you say about the current Sino-US relations? Do you feel worried or upset about the rise of China?

　　L: Actually I've always been excited about China. China has more than a fifth of the world's population and it's a rapid changing country. I think that China's success would be good for the world. In fact, I think that a China that fails would be a danger to the world. So frankly, I don't worry about the rise of China. I worry that China might not rise.

　　Y: A professor of Tsinghua University published a book a few years ago about the US media demonizing<注1> the Chinese government and overseas Chinese in America. So I wonder if your perception of China has also been somewhat influenced by the US media?

　　L: Well, living in the US I certainly follow the US media. But as a specialist on China, I would say my perception is heavily informed by the development in your country. I have a very considerable access to the media in China. And I meet with people from China all the time.

　　Y: How do you get first-hand information about China?

　　L: Well, first of all, I come here frequently.

　　Y: How frequently?

　　L: Six to eight times a year. I've made all together more than 100 trips to China. I think it's always important to get to a place if you want to understand a place. Secondly, there is a lot of information available about China. You publish a lot of journals, social publications of various sorts. There is a lot of information available through the World Bank, through your trading partners. So the problem really with the information on Chinese economy these days is that there is too much information available, very hard to put it all together.

　　Y: When I was studying in the university some twenty years ago, one of my professors said he tended to use the word "bias"<注2> to describe one's opinions. That makes me think about the channel of information available to you. How accurate, how objective do you think that kind of information could be in presenting a picture of what's really happening in China nowadays?

　　L: First of all, the biggest problem with presenting an accurate picture about what is happening in China is the size and complexity of China. The reality is that there are parts of China that are effectively like developed countries at this point, there are parts of China that still lag far behind. There are different kinds of issues in different parts of the country. So I think the biggest single problem about China in presenting an objective picture is simply understanding the balance insgroupsto put together a very complicated picture. I don't think the biggest problem is a lack of information or bias or source of information—because you've raised a lot of types of information. The biggest problem is understanding the entire picture. And that's not easy.

　　Y: Many of those who are ignorant about what's really happening in China tend to show great interest in shaping your China policy. What can you do to help dispel<注3> prejudice and misjudgment in this case?

　　L: Well, I think as a professor I do what other professors do—I speak, I teach and I write and I try to shape policy by doing interviews, by writing for the newspapers and for magazines, by publishing scholarly work that has hopefully solid research that can give some more fundamental perspectives. And over time, I hope to have some positive effect on the way people understand this country.

　　Y: Do you think you would be considered pro-China<注4> in your country and therefore would come under attacks by the conservatives?

　　L: There are some conservatives who call me pro-China, call me what they will term "panda-hugger"<注5>. That's their right to do so. All I can do is to tell the truth I best understand. They can give their views. It's a marketplace of ideas.

　　Y: Do they attack you from time to time or only under some special circumstances?

　　L: I found at various times I've been attacked by various people on the political right and on the political left.<注6> But that's the way America is—people have their own views, they say what they think. And as I said, it's a marketplace of ideas. I promote my own ideas which reflect my own best judgments.

　　Y: I believe you must be familiar with the case of Professor Qian Xuesen(钱学森). He returned to China from America in the 1950s. It was considered a big blow for the States in terms of brain drain<注7>. Now in the present day America there are also a lot of talented Chinese Americans who are outstanding scientists involved in high-tech industries. Do you fear that they would come back and serve China one day?

　　L: As for Doctor Qian's example, that on the part of the US was extremely stupid. We have not made that mistake in the recent years. There are Chinese scientists who hold top positions in the US, Chinese engineers who are at the top of our various corporations, Chinese computer specialists who are very important in our computer industry and so forth. So I frankly don't think we worry about brain drain. I think we benefit from the well-educated Chinese. Many of them were raised in the US, others came to the US late, and some of them will leave and go out. Well, that's fine. America is a very open society.

　　Y: The public opinion is quite divided in America as to the rise of China in recent years. Some argue that a strong and prosperous China will be good for the international society and others say the rapid development of China could pose a serious threat to American interests in Asia-Pacific region at least. Can I have your analysis on this point?

　　L: Sure. It's obviously in America's interest for China both to be successful and constructive member in the international arena, so that America and China could cooperate. It's less in America's interest for China to be successful and regard America as an enemy. That will obviously pose great problems to us. The biggest threat to America is a China that fails, a China that becomes unstable. So I think you have to look at three potential futures. A China that is successful andswheresUS-China relations are relatively cooperative as both of us have an interest in maintaining economic growth, maintaining security, cooperating in counter-terrorism and other issues. A China that is strong but antagonistic<注8> to the US, in which case I think Asia will suffer a great deal. But I think the US will still do ok. Or thirdly, a China that is really unstable. I think that's unlikely but feasible. And if that should occur, then I think American interests are severely harmed, and obviously Chinese interests are very severely harmed also.

　　Y: What do you mean by China being constructive?

　　L: I mean a China that joins the multilateral regimes<注9>, that governs many parts of international society whether it's WTO or the UN, the Asian Development Bank and etc., so that China becomes an active but stabilizing force in the international arena. Increasingly China's own health and well-being depend on international trade. So China's joining WTO benefits the global trading system, I believe. As China is actively and constructively engaged in various international efforts, (obviously you will not always agree with the US and we don't always agree with anyone) I think we'll have a common interest in establishing rules that everyone can obey.

　　Y: There is a fear in Japan that China may well replace them as the engine for the regional development in Asia. How do you look at that?

　　L: I think that Asia needs strong Chinese and Japanese economy to prosper. So my two big worries about Asia are about Chinese and Japanese. The optimists in Japan now say that the Japanese economy may grow at about one percent per year for the coming year. That's a very slow growth. So I think Japan is in quite deep trouble. And I am very concerned about its future growth.

　　Y: Another fact is that there is such a concentration of Taiwanese investment in the Changjiang River Delta<注10>. How do you look at the impact of the massive Taiwanese investment in this part of the country in relation to the prospect of unification of the country?

　　L: I think that probably makes it less likely that there will be a tragic escalation of tension across Taiwan Strait<注11>. That's for several reasons. First of all, many people in Taiwan now have a very strong economic interest in maintaining at least stability across the strait. Secondly, large number of people in Taiwan are now quite familiar with China, especially the Shanghai area, and recognize that it's a very vibrant<注12> society. I know many people in Taiwan will soon live on the mainland for quite some period of time as part of their business careers. So I think all of that is stabilizing. At the same time, I don't think that itself is sufficient to shape a political solution across the strait. I think that requires some political courage and some political initiative from each side. So the economic side provides a kind of base that is stabilizing but doesn't solve all the political problems.

　　Y: It seems that some people don't like the idea of a unified China. Can I have your personal judgment on this case?

　　L: My personal judgment is that provided<注13> the unification is achieved on the basis of a peaceful and voluntary agreement by both sides, it's a good thing. I think it's a good thing because the prospect, the possibility of conflict across the strait is enormously dangerous. I don't think that would occur but if it occurs it will have a profound effect on Asia as a whole and on China in particular and on the US as well. So unification will presumably eliminate that possibility. The issue then is how unification would occur. If it occurs through peaceful process without force used by either side, America will support that outcome.

　　Y: Thank you for sharing your ideas with us. -