冷战之后地区性冲突或争端一直不断，因此这些地区就成为世界政治格局中的“麻烦点”。本文作者是英国《卫报》(The Guardian)的外交编辑，他站在英国的立场上展望新世纪的麻烦点。尤其值得注意的是，他把中国视为不想称霸世界但却有潜力与美国抗衡的国家。他的看法在西方具有一定的代表性。

　　If<注2> the 20th century has been the American century, then there are plenty of people saying watch this space<注3>: the twenty-first century will be different. The distinguishing characteristic of the post-cold-war<注4> world is that there is only one superpower. And there's only one candidate<注5> on the horizon<注6> to challenge the US China.

　　The military muscle-flexing<注7> we have seen from China over the last few years could be an indication of how things are likely to go<注8>, although it has to be said<注9> that to many people's surprise the Chinese have been quite constructive over East Timor<注10>. But I think we must assume<注11> that the main struggle in the 21st century will be with<注12> China, already the world's largest nation. Happily<注13>, the Chinese seem to have no global pretensions<注14>: one<注15> can't see them interfering in some far-distant conflict, and in both military and economic terms<注16> they are still light years<注17> behind America.

　　We must also assume the continued decline of Russia. It<注18> shows how far things have gone<注19>(and how quickly) when what was once the second most powerful country in the world is being battered by Islamic rebels from the Caucasus<注20>. Now we have a Russian state which simply cannot cope.<注21>

　　Europe is already the largest trading block<注22> in the world, but while the euro<注23> could help it become an economic giant, and even challenge the dollar, it looks likely to remain a political and military pygmy<注24>. It's worth remembering that while Europe spends 60 per cent of what the USA does in defence, it has only 10 per cent of the Americans' firepower<注25>.

　　In the Middle East, in a relatively short space of time, bubbling<注26> conflicts have moved closer to resolution<注27>. The Arab-Israeli dispute has been reduced to its core essentials, while agreement between Syria and Israel remains the strategic prize<注28> for peace. Iran is undergoing a slow transformation but the outstanding<注29> political issue here is Iraq and Saddam Hussein's extraordinary survival. The international community remains bitterly divided about what to do.

　　Africa, I fear, is going to remain a disaster area, simply because it does not figure on people's mental maps<注30>. Currently there is war raging<注31> in six countries around the Congo, yet there's very little sense<注32> the international community will do anything about it. There is, though, some good news. If<注33> you look back a year ago to Algeria, it was drowning in its own blood<注34>. Now it seems to be back on the right track.

　　I do think arms control will be a big item on the agenda in future. For many years the non-proliferation regime<注35> actually worked surprisingly well, but India and Pakistan going nuclear<注36> has been a great blow to the status quo<注37>. And now there are new biological and chemical weapons undreamed-of horrors not to mention the whole legacy of the cold war which hasn't been cleaned up, such as Russian nuclear waste in the Arctic.

　　The fundamental problem is that there are countries that are simply being left behind by the onward march of globalisation. Global issues such as the environment and drugs and perhaps even human rights are going to come much more to the fore<注38>. As the world shrinks, so we shall have an increasing sense of the need for an international humanitarian order. Globalisation may be a good thing, but it has a dark underbelly<注39>.

　　(From CAM: Cambridge Alumni Magazine, No. 28, 1999)

　　1. Trouble Spots:指经常出现麻烦(如战乱、骚乱、犯罪等)的地方，这里暂且直译成“麻烦点”。

　　2. If:这里的意思是“如果说”。

　　3. watch this space:直译成“看这空间”显然意思不当，这里试译成“放眼世界”。

　　4. post-cold-war:冷战后的。post-的汉语对应字是“-后”，但却经常被误译成“后-”，如“后现代”。尽管“后现代”已经被广泛接受，这种误译还是应尽量避免。

　　5. candidate:通常意思是“候选人”，在此指“国家”。

　　6. on the horizon:字面义是“在地平线上”，比喻义是“可能很快发生或出现”。

　　7. muscle-flexing:字面义是“鼓起肌肉”，比喻义为“显示力量”。

　　8. how...go:形势有可能如何发展。

　　9. it has to be said:必须承认。

　　10. over East Timor:在东帝汶问题上。

　　11. assume:假定。

　　12. struggle...with:由于前面提到中国的军事力量，这里译成“与……较量”比“与……斗争”好。

　　13. Happily:令人欣慰的是。

　　14. global pretensions:字面意思是“全球性的权利要求”，可译成“称霸世界的野心”。

　　15. one:作为泛指的主语，one此处可以省略，或译成“人们”。

　　16. in both... terms:无论在军事上还是经济上。

　　17. light years:字面意思是“数光年”，表示距离遥远，可译成“远远”或“十万八千里”。

　　18. It:这里指代下面when引导的从句所说的情况。

　　19. how far... gone:事态已发展到何种地步。

　　20. the Caucasus:高加索地区。

　　21. we have...cope:这里的state指“政府”，cope的意思是“应付困难或困境”。这句话直译成“我们有一个根本无法应付其困境的俄罗斯政府”不如“俄罗斯政府根本无法应付其困境”通顺、自然。

　　22. trading block:可译成“贸易集团”或“贸易体”，block意思相当于bloc，指“国家集团”。

　　23. the euro:欧元。

　　24. pygmy:侏儒。

　　25. firepower:字面意思是“火力”，这里可译成“军力”。

　　26. bubbling:这里用开水咕嘟翻滚形容冲突的激烈和持续不断。

　　27. moved... resolution:字面意思是“向解决的方向更靠近了”。这里可以灵活地译成“已趋向和解”。

　　28. strategic prize: prize这里的意思是“珍贵之物”，“战略上的珍贵之物”可灵活译成“在战略上弥足珍贵”或“可贵的战略价值”。

　　29. outstanding:当与problem, issue之类的词搭配时，其意思是“尚未解决的”。

　　30. figure...maps:“在人们的头脑中显得重要”也就是“引起人们足够的重视”。

　　31. war raging:“战争在肆虐”即“燃烧着战火”。

　　32. there ...sense:从上下文看，这里的意思应当是“没有什么迹象表明”。

　　33. If:这里条件的意味不强，可以不译。

　　34. drowning... blood:直译是“浸没在自己的血泊中”。汉语表达类似的意思通常说“血流成河”。

　　35. non-proliferation regime:这个短语前面省略了nuclear，后面的regime意思是“管理体制”，译成中文是“防止核扩散体制”。

　　36. going nuclear:发展核武器。

　　37. status quo:现状。

　　38. come... fore:显露出来。

　　39. a dark underbelly:字面意思是“黑暗的下腹”，相当于汉语中常说的“阴暗的一面”。