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¡¡¡¡Directions:

¡¡¡¡In the following article, some sentences have been removed. For Questions 41¡«45, choose the most suitable one from the list A¡«G to fit into each of the numbered blanks. There are two extra choices which do not fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1. (10 points)

¡¡¡¡It is not often that Alan Greenspan admits to being puzzled by economic data. Yet on October 23rd, Mr. Greenspan confessed that he and the Fed were struggling to account for the recent surge in American productivity. 41) .

¡¡¡¡Trying to understand why the numbers are so big could help determine whether productivity will continue to grow at this pace. Will the miracle be sustained? Or is it a mirage in which the gains will be reversed?

¡¡¡¡42) . In recent years, he has staked a good deal of his reputation on the existence of the productivity miracle which appeared to accompany the high-tech boom of the late 1990s. The pricking of the dotcom bubble in early 2000 led many to conclude that the impressive productivity gains in the American economy from 1995 would turn out to be temporary, even if the figures weren¡¯t subsequently revised downwards. As a consequence, Mr. Greenspan¡¯s credibility would be tarnished. Some say it already is: that he is just another economist who believed all the hype.

¡¡¡¡43) . The government figures for productivity in the late 1990s have already been revised down. They now look less impressive than they did at first, but they still show a clear improvement compared with earlier American productivity growth rates-more than 2.5% a year since 1995, compared with about 1.5% in the preceding 20 years.

¡¡¡¡44) .

¡¡¡¡As the Fed chairman pointed out, this might not be all that unexpected if the economy had been recovering rapidly. Economies often grow quite quickly after recessions, and output per hour also grows rapidly. But after a brief spurt in the first quarter of this year, America¡¯s economy has been expanding sluggishly-so sluggishly that some economists still worry about a double-dip recession.

¡¡¡¡45) . One is simply the drive to cut costs as companies struggle to make a profit; getting rid of the ¡°fat¡± acquired during the boom years will also contribute to that. Some of the improvement might be a re-allocation of resources in the economy. Some businesses have been buying up computers and other high-tech equipment from failed dotcom companies who probably didn¡¯t use such resources very efficiently. Then, too, hard-pressed businesses try to do more with the same staff, rather than taking on extra workers. And a low inflation environment makes it more difficult for companies to put up prices and more important for them to improve productivity as far as they can.

¡¡¡¡£ÛA£Ý So, why is productivity growing so fast? There are several possible explanations, none of them mutually exclusive.

¡¡¡¡£ÛB£Ý Mr. Greenspan, as most economists know, has more than an academic interest in the answer.

¡¡¡¡£ÛC£Ý As the Fed¡¯s latest anecdotal survey of the economy, known as the Beige Book, showed on October 23rd, the economy remains weak in many sectors.

¡¡¡¡£ÛD£Ý Productivity growth juddered to a halt in 2000 as the economy turned sharply down. The recession in 2001 was the mildest on record, but the slowdown was sudden and sharp after the rapid economic expansion of the late 1990s. What has got Mr. Greenspan and his colleagues scratching their heads is the rapid pickª²up in productivity in the last 12 months.

¡¡¡¡£ÛE£Ý The IMF¡¯s chief economist said recently that he and his colleagues read the evidence as supporting the view that ¡°the productivity boom resulting from the tech revolution is real¡±. But as Mr.Greenspan knows, the books have yet to be closed.

¡¡¡¡£ÛF£Ý He was talking about the spectacular growth in productivity-output per hour worked-over the past year. It was likely, he said, to be one of the biggest increases in the past 30 years.

¡¡¡¡£ÛG£Ý The argument will not be settled until, as Mr. Greenspan put it, ¡°the books are closed¡±. It is simply too soon to be sure which gains were real and sustainable and which were transitory or illusory.