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联合国的未来 The Future of UN
http://www.sina.com.cn 2004/06/29 11:24  英语文摘

  译者点评:联合国作为一个极为重要的国际组织,在维护世界和平与发展,解决国际争端等问题上发挥着不可替代的作用。一年前,美国不顾众多国家的反对,悍然发动了伊拉克战争,使联合国的国际地位与应有作用遭受了前所未有的质疑。回顾联合国的创立和发展,人们必然要深刻反思联合国目前所受到的挑战。

  The invasion of Iraq destroyed the regime of Saddam Hussein as it was intended to do but did it also mark the beginning of the end for the United Nations﹖ Is the UN of any use at all in a world in which a single country towers over all others in military political and economic clout and is bent on having its own way﹖

  For some people the UN Security Council’s apparent reluctance to enforce its own resolutions against Iraq was a disgrace. For others the diplomatic armtwisting and public posturing in the council by the United States was a sordid spectacle that ended with America and Britain brushing the council aside and launching an invasion without a second resolution. However the Iraq episode is viewed the UN’s standing has taken a beating. The bombing of the organization’s Baghdad offices casts an ominous shadow over its attempts to play a useful role in Iraq though paradoxically it may also have encouraged a tentative rapprochement between America and its Security Council critics. Does the UN have a future﹖

  The UN was above all an American creation. Following the League of Nations fiasco after the first world war no other country had much enthusiasm for a second attempt at a world body. Both Stalin and Churchill were openly sceptical. But for America’s president Franklin Roosevelt establishing the United Nations was a top priority. Even while America continued to fight a world war on two fronts Roosevelt devoted large amounts of time and political capital to his pet project.

  After years of planning in Washington Roosevelt seriously ill traveled to Yalta in early 1945 to win Stalin’s agreement on postwar arrangements. The centerpiece of these would be the UN. Many of the people close to Roosevelt believed that the trip hastened his death which came two months later only 13 days before the UN’s founding conference in San Francisco was scheduled to begin. Stepping into his shoes an inexperienced and somewhat shaken Harry Truman promptly announced that the UN conference would go ahead and committed himself to its success. The American delegation arrived in San Francisco armed with detailed blueprints and negotiating strategies and then spent two intense months hammering out a final agreement with 46 other countries. In the United States the result was hailed as a triumph of American diplomacy.

  The most striking aspect of this tale is that in 1945 America’s global dominance was even greater than it is today. All other great powers lay in ruins while America itself was spared bombing or invasion. America’s factories were working at full tilt. Its armed forces were the most powerful in the world by far and it was only months from unveiling a terrible new weapon the atomic bomb which no other country possessed. America’s economic output by some estimates was half of the world’s total.

  At the peak of America’s powers in other words its leaders were determined to create a multilateral institution involving as many nations as possible as a primary mechanism for ensuring American as well as global security. In his speech before the San Francisco conference Truman was explicit about the price of doing so. “We all have to recognise—no matter how great our strength—that we must deny ourselves the licence to do always as we please.” For America itself Truman argued this was a price well worth paying. The contrast with the attitude of most subsequent American governments and especially the current one could not be more stark. Many Bush administration officials seem to view the UN either as an irrelevance or as a dangerous constraint.

  Roosevelt was one of the savviest and most hardheaded politicians ever to occupy the White House. He had no intention of repeating the mistakes of Woodrow Wilson whose League of Nations was repudiated by the American Senate and then became an impotent talking shop as the world slid towards another world war. Roosevelt’s new organization was to include as many nations large and small as possible but it was to be dominated by the great powers and when they were able to agree it was meant to have real muscle.

  The conference’s participants were also under no illusions about what was at stake. The second world war had not yet ended and frictions between the United States and the Soviet Union were already growing threatening yet another round of conflict. Participants did not dream that they were laying the foundations for world government. Their aim was a global security pact strong enough to avoid another world war.

  So has the UN worked as its founders hoped﹖ Certain features which sparked fierce debate in San Francisco and loomed large in the original design—trusteeships membership requirements a permanent military staff committee a revision conference—proved irrelevant in the long term. Others such as the growth of the UN’s agencies dealing with humanitarian aid and economic development were not anticipated. There has been no third world war but how much credit the UN can take for this is at best debatable. The truth is that the organization has had its ups and downs which have largely coincided with support or hostility to it from the great powers.

  But through all its vicissitudes two of the UN’s core features have survived. As history points out it has become a forum where all states including the great powers talk to each other on a continuous basis. And with the Bush administration now seeking yet another Security Council resolution encouraging other countries to send troops to Iraq it seems clear that the UN still retains something which even the world’s sole superpower finds it difficult to do without the ability to create broad coalitions amid an atmosphere of trust and legitimacy.

联合国的未来 The Future of UN

  正如所期望的那样,侵略伊拉克的战争摧毁了萨达姆政权。但这是否也标志着联合国末日的开始呢?一个大国比其他所有国家在军事、政治和经济领域都拥有无可争议的优势,并决意随心所欲行事。在这样的世界格局中,联合国还能发挥什么作用吗?

  安理会在实施制裁伊拉克的决议时态度明显十分勉强,这在一些人看来是联合国的耻辱;而在另一些人眼里,美国在安理会中施加外交压力并采取公开的强硬姿态是卑陋可耻的行径。最终,美英置安理会于不顾,不等通过第二个决议,就发动了侵略伊拉克的战争。无论人们怎样看待伊拉克问题,联合国的地位已经遭受了损害。联合国试图在伊拉克起着有益的作用,但联合国驻巴格达办事处被炸事件给它的努力笼罩了不祥的阴影。虽然从相反的角度看,这也可能有助于促成美国和它在安理会中的批评者之间暂时的和解。联合国还有未来吗?

  重要的一点是,联合国是美国创立的。一战后,随着国际联盟的彻底瓦解,没有其他国家有兴趣再去尝试建立一个国际组织。斯大林和丘吉尔公开表示怀疑。但对于美国总统富兰克林·罗斯福来说,建立联合国是他的首要任务。甚至当美国还在两个战场上继续进行世界大战时,罗斯福就已经将大量的时间和政治资本投入到他钟爱的计划中去了。

  经过在华盛顿几年的酝酿,1945年初,身患重病的罗斯福赴雅尔塔,以求取得斯大林对重建战后世界格局的一致意见。成立联合国是重建工作的重中之重。许多与罗斯福关系密切的人士认为,雅尔塔之行加速了罗斯福的去世。两个月之后,也就是计划在旧金山召开联合国成立大会前13天,罗斯福逝世。缺乏经验并有点摇摆不定的哈里·杜鲁门继任总统,他随即宣布联合国大会如期举行,并将胜利归功于自己。美国代表团到达旧金山,准备了详尽的草案和磋商策略,经过两个月的紧张工作,和其他46个国家达成了最后协议。会议的成果在美国国内受到赞扬,被认为是美国外交的一大胜利。

  最为引人注目的是,1945年美国在全球的优势地位甚至超过今天。所有其他大国均战痕累累,而美国本土却幸免于轰炸或入侵。美国的工厂正加足马力生产。它的军队是世界上最强大的,仅在几个月前,美国生产出了其他国家没有掌握的杀伤力极强的新式武器——原子弹。据估计,美国当时的经济产量占了世界产量的一半。

  换言之,在国家处于鼎盛时期,美国的领导人决心创建一个包括尽可能多的国家的多边国际机构,以确保美国以及全球的安全。在旧金山会议上发表的演讲中,杜鲁门总统明确地谈到了美国所应付出的代价。“我们都必须确认——无论我们有多么强大——也决不能够授予自己任意行事的权利。”杜鲁门提出,对美国而言,这是一个值得付出的代价。这一态度与美国此后的大多数历届政府,尤其是现任政府的态度相比截然不同。在许多布什政府官员的眼里,联合国似乎或者与美国毫不相干,或者是对美国的一种约束。

  罗斯福是入主白宫的最精明务实的、头脑最冷静的政治家之一。他不想重犯当年伍德罗·威尔逊的错误。威尔逊创立的国际联盟被美国参议院否决,当世界一步步滑向又一场世界大战时,国际联盟变成了一个无能的空谈场所。罗斯福创建的新的国际组织要包括尽可能多的国家,不论大国和小国,但它将由大国掌控,当它们能达成一致时,它应该具有真正的影响力。

  参加会议的代表们对存在的威胁也没有抱幻想。二战还没有结束,美苏之间的摩擦已经在增加,并存在着新一轮冲突的威胁。与会代表并未梦想要为一个世界政府奠定基础,他们的目标是缔结一个强有力的全球安全公约,以避免另一场世界战争。

  因此,联合国有没有像它的创立者所希望的那样发挥作用?一些曾在旧金山引起激烈辩论和在最初的方案中显得突出的特点——托管制度、成员国资格要求、常驻军事参谋委员会、决议修改会议——从长期的观点来看,已被证明不重要了。而其他的特点,比如为联合国负责人道主义援助和经济发展机构的产生,并不是当初所预期的。第三次世界大战并未爆发,但联合国究竟在这方面起到了多少作用,从最乐观的角度来看也是一个有争议的问题。事实是这一国际组织已几经沉浮,而它的沉浮在很大程度上取决于一些大国对它所采取的支持或敌对态度。

  但是,经历了多年的沧桑变化,联合国仍然保持了两个核心特点。正如历史所显示的,它已成为包括大国在内的所有国家进行持续不断的对话的舞台。布什政府现在正努力敦促安理会通过新的决议鼓励其他国家向伊拉克派兵,从这点可以明显看出,联合国仍然拥有一种力量,而这种力量即便是世界上惟一的超级大国都很难摒弃,这就是在信任和合法的气氛中建立广泛联盟的能力。 (高健 摘译自 The Economist Sep.13 2003)




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