| 罗奇：我们为什么应该感谢中国人 | |
| http://www.sina.com.cn 2004/06/18 11:52 英语文摘 | |
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译者点评：中国经济的迅猛发展吸引了全世界的目光，但出于各种各样的考虑，人们对这种增长有着不同，甚至是截然相反的看法。有人认为中国的发展是世界经济增长的源泉，是全球的福音；有人则认为中国通过非市场手段操纵人民币币值而获得不公平的竞争优势，造成了许多国家的经济困境，是一种威胁。摩根士丹利公司首席经济学家罗奇以中立的态度，客观实在的分析得出了他的结论。文章风格平实，分析中肯，仔细研读，必能有所增益。 A fickle world has changed its mind about China again. A year ago the miracle of Chinese growth was widely seen as a bonanza for an otherwise sluggish global economy. Today China is being cast as a threat—in effect, it has become a scapegoat for many of the more intractable problems that a dysfunctional world has been unable to solve. This role reversal is both disturbing and ill-founded. It probably says a good deal more about the West than it says about China. The case for China bashing stems largely from the angst about jobless recoveries in the world’s wealthy industrial nations. In particular, U.S. jobs are increasingly perceived as being exported to China—an erroneous perception that has tempted politicians to flirt with dangerous protectionist “remedies.” China’s currency peg—a fixed arrangement between the renminbi RMB and the dollar—has become a lightning rod in this debate. In the eyes of many it underscores the unfair competitive advantage that China enjoys in an otherwise tough global marketplace. Pressure is being put on China to rework the peg. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently noted that such a chance is a “fairly reasonable expectation.” A rumored 5% revaluation of the RMB is being hailed as a first step in taming the so-called China threat—as if that would actually temper the world’s imbalances. Nothing could be further from the truth. Lost in the handwringing are the extraordinary benefits that a rapidly changing Chinese economy is bringing to the world—benefits that an ungrateful world should give thanks for. That’s especially the case for the U.S. Yes China accounted for the largest portion of America’s record $540 billion trade deficit in 2003. But this deficit was not made in Beijing—it was made in Washington. That’s right—courtesy of a runaway federal budget deficit America has all but depleted its national savings. In order to fund the investment necessary for economic growth that shortfall of domestic savings must be offset by surplus savings from abroad. The U.S. has no choice other than to run massive balance of payments and trade deficits in order to attract foreign capital. For that reason alone China plays an important role in plugging a hole in the American economy. Just as Japan filled the void created by the Reagan budget deficits of the 1980s China is playing a similar role in an era of Bush budget deficits. Given our savings shortfallwe have to run trade deficits with someone. If it wasn’t China it could be Mexico Canada or even Europe. The result would be higher cost imports that would represent a tax on the American consumer—a tax that would squeeze purchasing power and would undoubtedly constrain U.S. economic growth. In fact it’s the consumer who benefits the most from America’s trade with China. The U.S. purchased more than $150 billion of cheap high quality Chinese products last year. That helped hold down the inflation rate. U.S. import prices for items other than petroleum rose by only 1% in the 12 months ended in December—a minuscule increase for a now rapidly growing economy with a weakening dollar. Low inflation provides a windfall of purchasing power to job short and income constrained U.S. consumers. America has China to thank for it. But that’s not all. It turns out that China is plowing back a large portion of its export earnings into dollar based financial assets. As of last November China held $144 billion in Treasury securities that’s 9.6% of total foreign holdings of such government paper—triple China’s share in 1994. Among foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries China is now second only to Japan and well ahead of Britain which is in third place. This is hardly a trivial matter. Normally outsized government borrowing would drive financing costs up. But eager Chinese buying of U.S. paper prevents that from happening. By helping keep interest rates low China is lending even more support to U.S. economic growth. It’s not just America that should be grateful for China’s dramatic emergence. Multinational corporations have moved rapidly to integrate China into the global supply chain. More than $50 billion in foreign direct investment went to China in each of the past two years making it the world’s largest recipient of such flows. Chinese subsidiaries of multinationals and joint venture partners from Japan the U.S. and Europe have accounted for 65% of the cumulative increase in total Chinese export growth over the past decade. Outsourcing has become an increasingly important element of corporate efficiency strategies around the world allowing high cost operations in developed countries to be replaced by low cost production in developing countries such as China. Ultimately these benefits are also passed on to consumers around the world. At the same time China has become an important source of growth for its neighbors in Asia and other countries. You’d never know that from all the clamor over China’s export prowess. But the big secret is surging Chinese import demand—up some 40% last year. As China erects the infrastructure of a modern economy it does so with capital equipment and technologies it purchases from countries and regions such as Japan South Korea Taiwan and Germany. Inasmuch as these same nations suffer from deficiencies of internal demandtheir China export businesses have become important sources of growth. The bottom line is that the so-called China threat rings hollow in an era of globalization. China is not stealing jobs from rich developed countries. Employment is growing in China’s export sector because multinational corporations are expanding their Chinese subsidiaries. And China’s demand for foreign made goods is supporting employment elsewhere in the world. Nor should China be accused of having an undervalued currency that gives it an unfair advantage in the battle for market share. Xenophobic American Congressmen believe that the country’s bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. is the smoking gun of a manipulated currency. Never mind that the RMB peg to the dollar hasn’t changed since 1994 the more important point is that China runs large deficits with most of its other trading partners. As a consequence its overall trade position is only slightly in surplus—some plus three tenths of a percent of Chinese gross domestic product in 2003. If anythingthis suggests that the Chinese currency may be fairly valued—at odds with those clamoring for a quick revaluation. Most of all the world owes a debt of gratitude to China for its commitment to dismantling its state-owned economy. For China this is the only avenue to sustained prosperity. For other nations it is an opportunity to tap an enormous market. Nor do we in the West have to worry that China will play unfairly on the road to reform. China’s willing accession to the World Trade Organization guarantees that it will be held accountable to a system based on Western rules. By committing to such an extraordinary transformation China has thrown down the gauntlet to the rest of the world. Yes China’s success is also a challenge It puts the rigid and outdated economies in Europe and Japan on notice that they must also change or risk being left behind in an increasingly fast moving time. Far from being a threat China is an important example for others to emulate. No one said globalization would be easy. But in the end it sure beats the alternatives. Thank you China for showing the way. | |
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| 罗奇：我们为什么应该感谢中国人 | |
By Stephen S. Roach 反复无常的世界再次改变了对中国的看法。一年前，人们普遍认为中国经济的增长奇迹是治疗全球经济不景气的灵丹妙药。如今中国又被视作是一种威胁——事实上中国已经成了这个运转不灵的世界无法解决的许多更加棘手问题的替罪羊。 这种角色转换既令人不安又毫无根据。与其说这种转变表明了中国的特点，不如说它能使人们更了解那些西方国家。 攻击中国的主要原因是世界上富有的工业国对经济复苏却没有带来就业机会感到的忧虑。特别是，越来越多的人认为美国的就业机会被转移到了中国——这种错误的观点已促使政客们转向危险的保护主义“补救办法”。 中国的固定汇率制度——即人民币和美元比价的固定安排——成了这场辩论的焦点。在许多人看来，该制度使中国在竞争激烈的全球市场享有了不公平的竞争优势。有人向中国施压，要求调整这个制度。 美联储主席阿兰·格林斯潘最近表示这种调整应是“一个比较合理的期待”。有谣传人民币将升值5%，这被看作是抵御所谓中国威胁的第一步——好像这么做确实可以缓解全球不平衡的问题一样。这种看法真是荒谬至极。 人们在焦虑中忘记了迅速变化的中国经济给世界带来的好处——这个不知感恩的世界应该对此实惠表示感谢。美国尤其如此。是的，2003年中国在美国创纪录的5400亿美元贸易逆差中占据了最大的份额；但逆差不是中国造成的，而是美国自己造成的。由于失控的联邦预算赤字，美国几乎耗尽了它的国家储蓄。为了提供经济增长所必需的投资，国内储蓄的不足必须用国外多余的存款来弥补。为了吸引外国资本，美国除了承受巨额的国际收支和贸易逆差外别无选择。 单单因为这个原因，中国就在填补美国经济的漏洞方面发挥了重要作用。 这就好像日本在上个世纪80年代弥补了里根政府的财政赤字一样，中国在布什政府赤字时代也发挥了类似的作用。既然我们储蓄不足，我们不得不承受对某个国家的贸易逆差。如果不是中国，那就可能是墨西哥、加拿大甚至欧洲。结果会是价格更高的进口产品流入美国，相当于对美国消费者征税——这样会削弱购买力，而且无疑会限制美国的经济增长。 实际上，美中贸易的最大受益者是美国消费者。去年，美国人购买了1500多亿美元价廉物美的中国货，帮助美国控制了通货膨胀。截至12月份，除了石油之外，美国进口商品的价格在过去的12个月中仅仅增长了1%。当前，美国经济迅速发展，而且美元持续走低，因此，这样的价格上扬是微不足道的。低通货膨胀为就业机会短缺、收入有限的美国消费者提供了额外的购买力。为此，美国应该感谢中国。 事实不仅如此。实际上，中国正把很大一部分出口收入转为以美元为单位的金融资产。截至去年11月，中国持有1440亿美元的美国国库债券，占这类政府债券外国持有总额的9.6%，这个数字是中国1994年所持份额的3倍。在美国国库券的外国持有者中，中国仅次于日本，居第二位，远远超过第三位的英国。 这不是一件小事。一般说来，过多的政府借款会使融资成本升高。但中国人热切地购买美国债券却阻止了这种情况的发生。通过保持低利率，中国向美国的经济增长提供了更多的支持。 对中国引人注目的崛起应该心存感激的不仅仅是美国。跨国公司已迅速地将中国融入了全球供应链。在过去的两年，每年都有超过500亿美元的外国直接投资流入中国，使之成为世界上吸引外国直接投资最多的国家。过去10年中，中国外贸出口累积增长的65%是由跨国公司在中国设立的子公司以及来自日本、美国和欧洲的合资企业创造的。从全球范围看，外包已经成为公司效率战略中越来越重要的一部分，它使发达国家高成本的生产转移到中国这些生产成本较低的发展中国家，其好处将最终被全世界的消费者分享。 与此同时，中国已成为它亚洲邻国及其他国家经济增长的重要源泉。在关于中国强劲出口的种种喧嚣中，你不会听到这种说法。秘密在于中国激增的进口需求——去年它的进口增长了大约40%。中国正在建立现代经济所需的基础设施，因而从日本、韩国、德国及台湾等国家和地区购入生产资料和技术，而由于这些国家内需疲软，对于中国的出口就成了它们经济增长的重要源泉。 归根结底，所谓的中国威胁在一个全球化的时代完全是空话。中国并没有从富有的发达国家窃取就业机会。中国的出口部门就业增长是因为跨国公司在中国的子公司的扩张。而中国对于外国商品的需求也在支持世界其他地方的就业机会。 我们也不应指责中国因币值定价过低而在市场份额的争夺中拥有了不公平的优势。排外的美国众议员认为，中国与美国的双边贸易顺差是其币值受操纵的确凿证据。尽管从1994年开始，人民币与美元挂钩就从未改变但有一点更重要，那就是中国与大多数其他的贸易伙伴都保持着很大的贸易逆差。因此，中国总的贸易状况只是略有顺差——约相当于其2003年国内生产总值的0.3%。我们只能得出这样的结论：中国货币的定价可能是比较合理的——与那些要求中国尽快对人民币进行升值的叫嚣完全相反。 世界最应该感激中国的是其国有经济改革的决心。对于中国而言，这是通向持久繁荣的惟一途径。而对于其他国家来说，这提供了占有一个巨大市场的机遇。 我们这些西方人也无须担心中国会在改革进程中采取不公平的手段。中国自愿加入世贸组织，就确保了中国将在以西方国家制定的游戏规则为基础的体系中运作。 通过投身于这场非凡的改革，中国向世界其他国家发起了挑战。是的，中国的成功也是一种挑战： 敦促欧洲和日本对僵化而过时的经济进行改革，否则就会被一个日新月异的时代抛在后面。中国根本不是什么威胁，而是其他国家应该仿效的榜样。 没有人说过全球化将是一个简单的过程。但是，最终我们将发现它是最佳的选择。谢谢中国，你为我们指明了道路。 (张帆 摘译自 Fortune Mar. 22 2004)
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