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第1季度美GDP增长率下滑至两年最低
http://www.sina.com.cn 2005/05/08 22:20  国际在线

  The American economy grew at its slowest pace in two years during the first quarter, the government reported Thursday, as business spending faltered and the trade deficit widened.

  The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the United States, grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, to $187.9 billion, compared with forecasts for growth of 3.5 percent. That was its weakest performance since the first quarter of 2003, when it rose 1.9 percent.

  The Commerce Department report was the latest in a series that has suggested that growth would be slower in the second quarter.

  But the data Thursday on growing inventories and rising prices indicated that the downturn might be worse than expected, some analysts said.

  Growing inventories accounted for 1.2 percentage points in the overall 3.1 percent rise in GDP, suggesting that companies would cut production in the second quarter.

  "I think you've got to interpret it with yesterday's durable goods numbers," which fell in March for the third month in a row, said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's. "That drop in orders suggests that the second quarter may be even worse."

  While consumers provided much of the growth in spending, largely by buying food and medical care, their expenditures expanded only 3.5 percent in the quarter, compared with 4.2 percent in the prior three months.

  Meanwhile, both business and consumers may spend less in response to a rise in prices, which in the quarter amounted to 3.3 percent, their biggest gain since the start of 2001, largely because of higher oil prices. But even excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, inflation jumped 3.1 percent - the most since the first quarter of 1992 - after already having risen 2 percent the previous quarter.

  "I'm not going to say it's runaway inflation, but I think it's more than people recognized," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

  As a result, the Federal Reserve may resist raising short-term interest rates at a quicker pace than it is doing now. It has raised the benchmark federal funds rate on overnight bank loans by a quarter-point seven times since June of last year, to 2.75 percent, but Wall Street analysts have been concerned that the Fed might be considering a half-point rise.

  "Certainly with this weak growth, you're not going to see any acceleration in rate hikes," Wyss said.

  Considered advance estimates, the figures released Thursday rely on data that are incomplete or subject to revision. Numbers based on additional data will be issued May 26.

  Net exports subtracted 1.5 percentage points from GDP as imports soared nearly 15 percent, their steepest rise since late 2003, substituting for production at home and offsetting a 7 percent surge in exports.

  "However, we continue to expect a pickup in GDP growth in the second half of the year," David Greenlaw, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note. "Of course, this assumes that energy prices have peaked."

第1季度美GDP增长率下滑至两年最低

  美国商务部日前公布的报告显示,今年第1季度美国经济增长率按年率计算仅为3.1%,即1879亿美元,低于经济学家们原先预计的3.5%,为近两年来的最低增速。

  据美国《国际先驱论坛报》4月29日报道,报告还预计第2季度美国经济增长率将继续下滑。而从28日公布的统计数据来看,问题似乎比预期的要严重。专家们认为,库存增加和价格上涨将会继续恶化美国的经济总体走势。

  GDP增长幅度仅仅为3.1%,而库存增幅却达到了1.2%,这意味着在接下来的第2季度中各大公司不得不降低产量来将手中积压的产品清空。标准普尔首席经济学家戴维德-华斯说:“也许我们应该把今天的库存增加归咎于过去产品出色的耐久度,而订单的下滑意味着第2季度问题也许会变得更加棘手。”

  据统计,美国普通消费者支出的增长率实际上并不算太低,这些花费大多集中在食品、医疗用品方面,但是第1季度消费增长率还是大大低于上季度的4.2%。随着原油价格的飙升,美国物价指数也随之波动且本季度的增幅高达3.3%,这个数字是自2001年以来最高的,因此,消费者对于这种物价上涨的局面采取了降低支出的对策。另一方面,即使抛出浮动的食品和能源价格,美国的通货膨胀率仍然提高了3.1%,为自1992年以来的最高水平,上季度为增长2%。

  报道说,为应对这种情况,美联储也许将会采取减缓利率上调幅度的措施。自从去年6月份以来,美联储已将联邦基准利率上调了足足7次,达到目前的2.75%。本季度美国经济增长的减缓也许将结束利率上调幅度增加的趋势,华斯表示:“毫无疑问,如此虚弱的增长态势必然不会引起大幅度的利率上调。”

  当然并不是所有的分析家都对此份报告表现出恐慌,摩根斯坦利首席经济学家戴维德-格林罗在一份研究报告中表明:“尽管现状如此,然而我们仍然可以寄希望于后半年的美国能在GDP增长方面来个良好的反弹。当然这个假设是建立在能源价格不再攀升的前提下。”(文/李远)


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